Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) Although the pace of growth slipped in August, the small rise GDP was still stronger than indicated by the timelier data. That will encourage policymakers and suggests that the Bank of Canada remains... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) September’s unexpectedly sharp drop in headline inflation will not prevent the Bank of Canada from following through with a widely-expected rate rise at its meeting next week. But further falls in... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) August’s drop in manufacturing sales was almost entirely due to temporary plant shutdowns in the automotive sector. Sales are therefore likely to rebound in September, particularly with surveys... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Sep.) After accelerating in September for the first time in 16 months, house price inflation could rise a touch further in the near term, but there is little hope of anything more than a temporary and... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s impressive rebound in employment is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada will pull the trigger on a rate hike later this month. While we think that the current strength of the... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul) The stronger-than-expected 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that annualised growth in the second quarter may turn out to be closer to 2.0% than the 1.5% we had pencilled in. 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) Headline inflation looks set to continue falling to around 2% by the end of the year, as energy price inflation drops back. But with all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures picking... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul) The third consecutive rise in Canadian manufacturing sales in July puts the sector on track for a very strong third quarter. Another fall in new orders suggests that growth may be close to a peak, but... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Aug.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q2) After dropping to a nine-year low in August, house price inflation looks set to rebound in the coming months, but we doubt that turnaround will be sustained. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected capacity... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) Although August’s sharp drop in employment simply reversed July’s gain, the concentration of losses in high-wage service jobs and construction is concerning. Coupled with a further slowdown in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The unexpected narrowing of the trade deficit in July to just $0.1bn, from June’s $0.7bn, suggests that economic growth might hold up a bit better than we expected in the third quarter. 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2018) The strong pace of growth in the second quarter, and a NAFTA deal if it materialises by Friday, will embolden policymakers. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada is still likely to keep to its commitment... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) While retail sales values and volumes both fell in June, over the second quarter as a whole growth rebounded. However, the slowdown in housing market activity and rising interest rates will limit... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% in July, from June’s 2.5%, was partly due to rising energy prices but also appeared to reflect a pick-up in general inflationary pressures. We think that the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) June’s gain in sales was flattered by the energy sector, but the key take away is that another rise in unfilled orders bodes well for growth in the third quarter and suggests inflationary pressures... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The decline in the national rate of house price inflation to a five-year low of 1.8% in July is likely to be followed by further weakness in the months ahead. For now, house prices seem more likely to... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
