Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) November’s sharp fall in manufacturing sales partly reflected some temporary disruption, so sales probably rebounded in December. Nevertheless, echoing the weakness seen in many other countries, the... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s rise in inflation mainly reflected a statistical quirk and will be more than reversed in January. Indeed, we expect inflation to drop below 1.5% in the coming months. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Dec.) The 0.3% seasonally-adjusted rise in house prices in December masked very divergent trends between cities. Sales-to-new listing ratios suggest that this divergence will widen in the coming months... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The further widening of the trade deficit in November mainly reflected a sharp drop in export values due to the recent slump in oil prices. Nevertheless, non-energy export volumes also fared poorly... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The 9,000 increase in employment in December was better than expected and, encouragingly, suggests that November’s bumper 94,000 gain was more than just a statistical quirk. But for anyone who still... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The economy performed better than expected at the start of the fourth quarter. But with a number of factors likely to have weighed on growth in November, October’s data are little reason to think that... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) November’s sharp decline in headline inflation reflects the recent slump in energy prices. But with two of the three core inflation measures softening too, there’s even more reason for the Bank of... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The global slowdown is beginning to weigh more on the Canadian factory sector, with manufacturing sales values declining by 0.1% m/m in October. Admittedly, sales volumes increased by 0.2% m/m, but... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q3) Base effects caused annual house price inflation to rise again in November, but it will decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the sharp fall in capacity utilisation in the third quarter is another... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The 94,000 surge in employment was nine times stronger than the consensus forecast, but the gains were led partly by Alberta where the outlook has recently deteriorated markedly. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The unexpectedly large widening of the trade deficit in October is a sign of things to come, as continued falls in energy prices in November will have pushed export values down further. The planned... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2018) The economy’s third-quarter performance was weaker than the headline GDP gain of 2.0% annualised suggests. Consumer spending growth slowed sharply, while investment contracted for the second quarter... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) Headline inflation picked up in October, but slumping energy prices mean that it is likely to decline sharply from here. There were few signs of increasing core price pressures in October, and we... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) September’s rise in manufacturing sales capped off a strong quarter, but sales fell in volumes terms and the breakdown was hardly encouraging. While the Markit manufacturing PMI remained fairly high... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Oct.) Favourable base effects explain the pick-up in house price inflation in October. Prices only inched up on the month in seasonally-adjusted terms, and we suspect that house price inflation will slow... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Int. Trade (Sep.) October’s further decline in wage growth is a worrying signal for policymakers, with real wage growth stagnating just as the Bank takes a more hawkish approach to normalising policy. 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
