Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The Bank of Canada won’t worry too much about March’s small drop in employment following previous strong gains and will be more encouraged by the fact that wage growth rose to seven-month high... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) January’s 0.3% rise in monthly GDP was far better than expected, and its broad-based nature lends support to the view that the economy’s recent soft patch was mainly due to temporary factors. But with... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) The further decline in the international manufacturing surveys in recent months suggests that January’s strong export growth is unlikely to be sustained. With import volumes rising by even more than... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The recent decline in unit labour cost growth suggests that February’s drop in one of the Bank’s measures of core inflation is a sign of things to come. Although retail sales volumes performed a touch... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The 1.4% monthly rise in manufacturing sales volumes at the start of the year will allay fears that Canadian GDP growth slowed even further in the first quarter. Growth is still set to be below... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Feb.) The 0.4% monthly drop in the Teranet House Price Index equates to a 0.1% fall in seasonally-adjusted terms. That pushed the annual pace of house price inflation below 2% and we expect it to remain... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The further rise in employment in February will help to soothe fears that Canada’s economy slowed even further at the start of the year. While pay growth was also stronger than expected, the big drop... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) Although December’s trade data were worse than expected, we doubt this will result in a downward revision to the fourth-quarter GDP data. But with global business surveys deteriorating in recent... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2018) On the basis of this latest set of woeful GDP figures, the Bank of Canada must surely be considering following the Fed and abandoning any talk of further interest rate hikes at next week’s policy... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The Bank of Canada is unlikely to put a lot of weight on the sharp drop in headline inflation in January, given that it was caused by the notoriously volatile energy and airfare components. But if... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) A rise in auto sales helped drive a better-than-expected outturn for retail sales in December. Sales volumes were unchanged over the fourth quarter, though, suggesting that consumer spending growth... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) The unexpected slump in manufacturing sales in December was principally due to continued problems in petroleum refining, but the weakness extended well beyond that sector and suggests that Canada did... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jan.) The 0.1% monthly decline in the Teranet House Price Index in January equates to a decent 0.4% m/m increase in seasonally-adjusted terms. But the annual pace of house price inflation dropped back to... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January’s outsized 67,000 jump in employment will temper fears that the recent economic weakness is worsening. But with annual earnings growth unchanged at 2%, there are still no signs of rising... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November’s fall in GDP appears to have been followed by further weakness in December and January. With economic growth set to slow sharply this year, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to follow through... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) Although November’s fall in retail sales partly reflected lower gasoline prices, sales still fell in volume terms. Indeed, sales volumes appear to have contracted for the second quarter running last... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
