Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Retail sales rose by just 0.1% m/m in April, partly because the introduction of the carbon tax weighed on gasoline sales volumes. Total retail sales declined in volume terms and the weakness of... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The upside surprises in core and headline inflation in May reduce the chance of the Bank cutting interest rates in the next few months. But we expect core inflation to drift back down in the second... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) Temporary plant shutdowns in the automotive sector explain why manufacturing sales fell in April, but the further drop in the Markit manufacturing PMI in May suggests that underlying demand remains... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) Another strong month for employment and a further rise in wage growth seems to support the Bank of Canada’s view that the recent economic slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors. But with both... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data point to net trade making a very large positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter, following the large negative contribution in the first quarter. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2019) The first-quarter weakness in GDP growth won’t convince the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates, since the Bank knew that temporary disruptions would weigh on the economy. Nevertheless, if we are... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales growth was flattered in March by higher gasoline prices and the unwinding of temporary factors that had weighed on sales in February. We expect overall consumer spending growth to lag... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) Following transport-related disruption in February, manufacturing sales more than made up for that earlier weakness with a 2.1% m/m rise in March. Given the subdued tone of the business surveys... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s modest rise in headline inflation to 2.0%, from 1.9%, was partly due to temporary factors so we expect inflation to edge back down in May. While base effects from last year mean that core... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April’s 107,000 rise in employment blew the consensus out of the water and will encourage policymakers. But the increase was less impressive than it first seemed, with over half of the gain coming... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March’s rise in export volumes only partially reversed February’s slump, but exports probably rose again in April. After being a big drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was only 1.0%... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m decline in monthly real GDP in February was principally due to the unseasonably severe weather this winter and the associated disruption to rail transportation, which had a knock-on... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s 0.8% m/m rise in retail sales was a pleasant surprise given the unusually severe winter weather that month. Although consumer confidence has rebounded a touch so far this year, it is still... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & International Trade (Feb.) Recent declines in capacity constraints and inflation expectations suggest that March’s pick-up in core inflation is likely to be reversed before long. Meanwhile, the slump in export volumes in... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) February’s drop in manufacturing sales volumes adds to the signs that the economy had a poor month. While part of the weakness may reflect temporary factors, such as unseasonably severe winter weather... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Mar.) The Teranet House Price Index showed a second consecutive monthly fall in house prices in March. The recent weakness of home sales and the increase in new home supply this year suggests that house... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
