Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation rebounded to 1.0% in January and is set to rise to 3% or higher in April. That spike will mainly reflect base effects linked to the sharp falls in energy prices early last year but, as the... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) & International Trade (Dec.) While the slump in employment in January suggests GDP growth will slow sharply this quarter, the unexpected rise in hours worked supports our view that GDP will at least continue to increase, and the... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) A strong rise in GDP in November and an unexpected gain in December suggest that the economy carried far more momentum into the new year than expected. Nevertheless, as a result of the latest... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The tightening of the coronavirus restrictions in November helped boost retail sales, as consumers substituted spending on goods for spending on services. That means the retail sales data paint too... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The unexpected fall in CPI inflation to 0.7% in December is not a sign of things to come. Instead, base effects linked to the steep falls in prices in the spring last year will push up inflation to 3%... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) Manufacturing sales dropped back again in November and renewed supply-chain disruptions suggest that the sector will continue to struggle in the coming months. 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q4) The fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS) showed that firms’ hiring and investment intentions are now back to pre-pandemic norms, which bodes well for the economic recovery this year. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The drop in employment in December would have been even larger were it not for the early timing of the survey reference week. With further restrictions imposed across the country since December’s... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) Exports rose in November and the recent improvement in the business surveys bodes well for growth in the coming months, but the lockdowns suggest that GDP will still edge down in the first quarter. 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The economy continued to recover at a decent pace in October and November despite the various restrictions imposed on high-risk services, but the broader lockdowns coming into effect in Ontario and... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m in October, although the sharp falls in gasoline and clothing sales imply that the worsening coronavirus outbreak was beginning to bite. Even if retail sales continue to... 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) House price inflation rose to 9% in November and is likely to surpass 10% in the first quarter. We expect house price inflation to slow sharply after that, but prices should keep rising throughout... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The higher-than-expected rate of inflation in November was mainly a statistical quirk resulting from continued difficulties in collecting price data for travel tours. The same effect could cause... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) Manufacturing sales only edged up in October and the disruption from the coronavirus at home and abroad is likely to hold back growth in the next few months, but we are more positive about prospects... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Internat’nl Trade (Oct.) Employment outperformed expectations last month, but the additional coronavirus restrictions imposed since the November LFS survey was carried out lead us to think it will fall back in December. 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 & Sep.) GDP expanded by a record 40.5% annualised in the third quarter, as the first lockdowns were lifted, but that still left it 5.3% below its pre-pandemic level. Some more lost ground appears to have been... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
