Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The large rise in retail sales volumes in January and the even bigger increase in sales at food service & drinking places imply that household consumption rose strongly at the start of the year... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) In case the turmoil in the global banking sector left any doubt, the sharper-than-expected fall in headline CPI inflation in February suggests there is little chance that the Bank of Canada will be... 21st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The manufacturing sector made a stellar start to 2023, but the surveys suggest growth will soon slow and the banking sector problems in the US could weigh on manufacturing demand over the rest of the... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) Employment growth slowed sharply in February but the rise in hours worked suggests that the economy performed well last month. With the low unemployment rate putting upward pressure on wage growth... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The strong gains in exports and imports in January suggest that easing supply shortages are offsetting the negative impact of higher interest rates on both external and domestic demand. That presents... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4) The stagnation in fourth-quarter GDP, together with the downward revision to third-quarter GDP growth, leaves the economy in worse shape than the Bank of Canada expected. That is another reason to... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The much smaller rise in core prices in January suggests that headline inflation will fall faster than the Bank of Canada expects, reinforcing our view that the Bank is unlikely to resume raising... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) Another rise in motor vehicle manufacturing sales failed to offset weakness elsewhere in December, with overall sales volumes edging down. The rebound in the S&P Manufacturing PMI and manufacturing... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The surge in employment and rise in hours worked in January suggest that GDP growth will be stronger than we anticipated this quarter. However, the decline in wage growth means that unexpected... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Dec.) A surge in motor vehicle exports drove export volumes higher at the end of 2022, even as lower commodity prices weighed on export values. While there is scope for motor vehicle exports to recover... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The monthly data suggest GDP growth slowed to 1.6% annualised in the fourth quarter, which would be better than initially expected considering the surge in interest rates. Nonetheless, with some of... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) Retail sales edged down in November but the preliminary estimate of a 0.5% m/m rise in December, despite the double-digit fall in gasoline prices, implies that sales volumes rose sharply at the end of... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although the annual rates of core inflation remain elevated, the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median dropped back to 2.5% in December. Elevated inflation expectations mean that the... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q4) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys leave no doubt that higher interest rates are weighing on demand, but still don’t show a convincing moderation in wage and inflation expectations... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) The easing of supply shortages provided a big boost to motor vehicle shipments in November, but this failed to offset falls elsewhere. While there is scope for transportation equipment sales to rise... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The surge in employment in December and renewed fall in the unemployment rate suggest that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again later this month, although the fall in wage growth means... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
