Japan Economics Update Rebound in 10-year JGB yield has much further to run The trade war has merely delayed rather than scuppered further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the 10-year JGB yield will rise to 1.75% by year... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Bonds Update Revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads Given our view that the rise in yields outside Germany will not match the recent increase in Bund yields anytime soon, we are revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads. That said, we still... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Bonds Update Tariffs matter more for Canadian markets than the election While a notable shift in Canadian fiscal policy is likely regardless of who wins the upcoming election, we doubt this will move the needle for the loonie or Canadian government bonds, given that the... 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update German yields, stocks, and the euro surge – what next? In this Update, we put into context the recent surges in Bund yields, German equities, and the euro that have been triggered by expectations of a significant loosening of fiscal policy in Europe’s... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is US equities exceptionalism dead? 1741795200 The recent underperformance of US equities marks a notable shift in the global market environment – but is this just a temporary state of affairs or the new order of things?&n
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: what to expect on election night and beyond Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support... 20th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Bonds Update Trump’s tariffs a headwind for EM debt We doubt that Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff threat, nor his broader protectionist agenda, are priced in markets fully. We expect US Treasury yields and the dollar to edge up as these tariffs come... 18th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Rising Treasury term premia and the stock-bond correlation Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update How much yield divergence can we expect this year? We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan. 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Is the Treasury sell-off over? We think Treasury yields will fall over the remainder of this year, but that the yield curve could nonetheless continue to steepen. 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Chinese bonds – is there any alternative? We think China’s 10-year government bond yield will fall to fresh record lows over the coming year, partly because the other investment options available to Chinese investors look increasingly... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Rising yields risk macro fallout If sustained, rising bond yields add to downside risks to economic growth. The potential direct effects on real activity are greatest in the US. But higher yields in other DMs could limit how far... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
