Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds Focus What to make of shrinking IG credit spreads Despite being around multi-decade lows, we think credit spreads of US investment-grade corporate bonds could fall further still over the next year or so. 12th December 2024 · 11 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Global Markets Focus The US election and market implications for EMs We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president... 1st November 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Focus Final thoughts on the US election & market implications While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Bonds Focus Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes? Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive... 25th October 2024 · 17 mins read
