Bank of Japan Watch Q2 contraction to force policymakers’ hand The economy almost certainly contracted last quarter, rendering the Bank’s upbeat GDP forecasts increasingly unrealistic and denting hopes that inflation will reach 2% by next summer. Rather than... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Could the BoJ delay the 2% inflation timeframe yet again? The slowdown in economic activity in Q2 has dented hopes of an imminent strengthening of price pressure. The Bank could simply push the timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target back yet again... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Growth deceleration to trigger more easing by October The strength of Q1 GDP seems to have vindicated the Bank of Japan’s optimistic outlook on the economy. However, we think that growth will be much slower in the rest of the year, so inflation is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to ease before too long The Bank’s decision not to announce more stimulus at the end-April meeting will only make it more difficult to reach its 2%-inflation target, as any support from a weaker yen and rising import prices... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ could spring another surprise With economic activity sluggish and inflation slowing, we think it is a question of when rather than if the Bank will step up the pace of its asset purchases. Mr Kuroda has given no hint recently –... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to ease policy at the end of the month Recent data cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery while inflation continues to slow. With a disappointing Shunto dashing hopes that the tight labour market would result in robust wage... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Spacecraft QQE needs fresh fuel to reach 2% orbit The economy seems to have picked up speed since the start of the year, and the ongoing spring wage negotiations will likely end with a sizeable increase in base pay. However, inflation has continued... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to surprise markets by easing again in April The plunge in energy prices should provide a welcome fillip to economic activity, and thus strengthen price pressure in the medium term. But the more pressing concern is that lower inflation threatens... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation expectations to require policy response The collapse in oil prices will force the Bank of Japan to tear up its inflation forecasts at the Policy Board meeting next week. It is also likely to set back efforts to lift inflation expectations... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling energy prices jeopardise inflation target Policymakers will have been comforted by the jump in the Nikkei and the plunge in the yen since they stepped up the pace of monetary easing at the end of October. As such, they will almost certainly... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further easing still likely to be needed The Bank of Japan’s decision to step up the pace of asset purchases at the end-October meeting has resulted in a sharp fall in the yen, which should lift consumer prices in coming months. What’s more... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower energy prices another reason to ease more Just a few months ago, a sizeable number of analysts were expecting the Bank of Japan to provide more stimulus at the upcoming meeting, but only a few are still holding on to that view. We expect that... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch How important is the exchange rate for inflation? The latest data still show a sluggish recovery, but recent BoJ communication remains upbeat. The upcoming meeting is therefore unlikely to result in any changes to policy or tone. Instead, we think... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch How important is the second sales tax hike to the BoJ? Despite the recent run of weak data, the Bank of Japan may strike a more positive tone about the economy at its meeting this week, while leaving policy settings unchanged. This would dampen hopes of... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch October meeting might disappoint markets The upcoming BoJ meeting is unlikely to result in any changes in policy. However, policymakers will have to outline their strategy for 2015 before too long – most likely at the late-October meeting... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch More easing still required as BoJ “only halfway there” Until recently, the majority of analysts had expected the Bank of Japan to announce more easing at the meeting that concludes next Tuesday (15th July). But recent upbeat communication by central bank... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
