Bank of Japan Watch BoJ could spring another surprise With economic activity sluggish and inflation slowing, we think it is a question of when rather than if the Bank will step up the pace of its asset purchases. Mr Kuroda has given no hint recently –... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to ease policy at the end of the month Recent data cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery while inflation continues to slow. With a disappointing Shunto dashing hopes that the tight labour market would result in robust wage... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Spacecraft QQE needs fresh fuel to reach 2% orbit The economy seems to have picked up speed since the start of the year, and the ongoing spring wage negotiations will likely end with a sizeable increase in base pay. However, inflation has continued... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to surprise markets by easing again in April The plunge in energy prices should provide a welcome fillip to economic activity, and thus strengthen price pressure in the medium term. But the more pressing concern is that lower inflation threatens... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation expectations to require policy response The collapse in oil prices will force the Bank of Japan to tear up its inflation forecasts at the Policy Board meeting next week. It is also likely to set back efforts to lift inflation expectations... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling energy prices jeopardise inflation target Policymakers will have been comforted by the jump in the Nikkei and the plunge in the yen since they stepped up the pace of monetary easing at the end of October. As such, they will almost certainly... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further easing still likely to be needed The Bank of Japan’s decision to step up the pace of asset purchases at the end-October meeting has resulted in a sharp fall in the yen, which should lift consumer prices in coming months. What’s more... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower energy prices another reason to ease more Just a few months ago, a sizeable number of analysts were expecting the Bank of Japan to provide more stimulus at the upcoming meeting, but only a few are still holding on to that view. We expect that... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch How important is the exchange rate for inflation? The latest data still show a sluggish recovery, but recent BoJ communication remains upbeat. The upcoming meeting is therefore unlikely to result in any changes to policy or tone. Instead, we think... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch How important is the second sales tax hike to the BoJ? Despite the recent run of weak data, the Bank of Japan may strike a more positive tone about the economy at its meeting this week, while leaving policy settings unchanged. This would dampen hopes of... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch October meeting might disappoint markets The upcoming BoJ meeting is unlikely to result in any changes in policy. However, policymakers will have to outline their strategy for 2015 before too long – most likely at the late-October meeting... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch More easing still required as BoJ “only halfway there” Until recently, the majority of analysts had expected the Bank of Japan to announce more easing at the meeting that concludes next Tuesday (15th July). But recent upbeat communication by central bank... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch “Third arrow” may trigger additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at the meeting that concludes on Friday (13 th June). We continue to expect more easing in October as it becomes clear that inflation... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch On-target inflation forecasts don't preclude more easing The Bank of Japan will most likely leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming May meeting, and Board members’ sanguine views on the economy suggest that the chances of additional near-term easing... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Spread of forecasts at least as revealing as the median The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the second of this month’s two Board meetings on Wednesday. However, there should still be plenty of... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Sales tax hike alone unlikely to prompt further stimulus The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the first of this month’s two Board meetings on Tuesday (8th), despite the hit to GDP from the... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
