Bank of Japan Watch Policy rate to be lowered further At its upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan is set to slash its inflation forecasts for the coming fiscal year and may push also back the timeframe for hitting the 2% inflation target yet again. While... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Comprehensive policy review should deliver more easing The announcement that a comprehensive assessment of monetary policy would be carried out at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting has triggered even more speculation than usual about possible changes of... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent BoJ from easing An imminent shift from fiscal tightening to loosening has reduced the pressure on the Bank of Japan to provide more stimulus. However, the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate since the start of... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling underlying inflation to require more easing The government’s decision to postpone the sales tax hike to 2019 has improved the economic outlook. However, we still believe that the Bank will respond to the recent moderation in underlying... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to announce more easing this week Headwinds to the Bank of Japan’s efforts to lift inflation have intensified in recent weeks. We expect the Bank to ease more at the upcoming meeting, most probably by increasing asset purchases and... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank likely to announce more easing this month Japan’s economy is struggling to regain momentum and the recent strengthening of the yen is providing a further headwind to efforts to raise inflation. The Bank of Japan will therefore have to step up... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Virtuous cycle grinding to a halt With economic activity recovering and underlying inflation holding up, the recent strengthening of the yen and the plunge in the Nikkei are unlikely to force the Bank’s hand at next week’s meeting... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Inflation slowdown to increase pressure on policymakers With economic activity recovering and underlying inflation holding up, there is little immediate pressure on the Bank to step up the pace of easing. However, we still believe that price pressures will... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to step up pace of easing The renewed widening in spare capacity last quarter suggests that underlying inflation will start to moderate before long. We therefore still think that more easing will eventually be required, with... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ likely to announce more stimulus on Friday The recent rebound in underlying inflation provides a reason for the Bank of Japan to stand pat at Friday’s meeting, but not a compelling one. With the economy back in recession and the tight labour... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to step up pace of easing this month With the economy very likely now back in recession, an increase in monetary stimulus looks all but inevitable. Policymakers could announce more easing as soon as this week, but our base case remains... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Headwinds to QQE are intensifying Economic activity continues to languish, and the tight labour market has failed to generate broad-based wage gains. With renewed falls in crude oil prices undermining the Bank’s attempts to lift... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Q2 contraction to force policymakers’ hand The economy almost certainly contracted last quarter, rendering the Bank’s upbeat GDP forecasts increasingly unrealistic and denting hopes that inflation will reach 2% by next summer. Rather than... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Could the BoJ delay the 2% inflation timeframe yet again? The slowdown in economic activity in Q2 has dented hopes of an imminent strengthening of price pressure. The Bank could simply push the timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target back yet again... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Growth deceleration to trigger more easing by October The strength of Q1 GDP seems to have vindicated the Bank of Japan’s optimistic outlook on the economy. However, we think that growth will be much slower in the rest of the year, so inflation is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to ease before too long The Bank’s decision not to announce more stimulus at the end-April meeting will only make it more difficult to reach its 2%-inflation target, as any support from a weaker yen and rising import prices... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read