Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer to save MYEFO windfall for future tax cuts We expect the Treasurer will use his recent windfall of up to $10bn to emphasize in Monday’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook that he is on track to generate a budget surplus in 2020/21 and also... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses step up while households go on strike The recent shift in the composition of GDP growth in Australia has important consequences for the outlook for next year. While businesses will support growth by more than in any year since 2012... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the fall in spare capacity mean for wages? While the notable strengthening in the Australian labour market this year has led to some reduction in the high levels of existing spare capacity, wage growth has remained around record lows. And the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will there be any reprieve for retailers this Christmas? While the sustained pick-up in employment growth so far this year provides some reason for optimism about consumer spending in the all-important Christmas period, on balance the evidence suggests that... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons on unemployment and inflation If the Reserve Bank of Australia were to learn from its recent forecasting failures, it would conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to fall by more than it expects but that underlying... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A state of convergence Over the next few years we expect that the relative performance of the largest states in Australia will converge, as the mining-exposed states of Queensland and Western Australia benefit most from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing and the economy The stagnation in house prices in Australia in recent months is a big deal as it means housing won’t support the economy by as much as in recent years. The plunge in the number of home sales will... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market forces still aren’t boosting inflation Australia’s third-quarter inflation data highlighted that inflation is highest for the items where prices are influenced by government decisions and inflation is lowest for the items where prices are... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What is the true rate of inflation? Although much attention will fall on the release of the third-quarter Australian inflation figures next week, the reweighting of the CPI basket in the fourth-quarter will be more significant as it... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How big will the rebound in business investment be? While we are becoming more optimistic on the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia following years of disappointing growth, we doubt the pick-up will be as strong as business surveys... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Retail weakness a worry, but not a disaster The recent slump in retail sales in Australia suggests that the slowdown in consumption growth that we have been warning about is underway. But it’s not a disaster for the economy as an associated... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs growth to be concentrated in highly paid sectors While leading labour market indicators in Australia continue to point a decent pace of employment growth ahead, it is not just the rate of jobs growth that matters but also the composition. And at... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A solid first year from Governor Lowe Philip Lowe has notched up an impressive scorecard in his first year as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, but greater challenges lie ahead. There are reasons to believe that economic growth... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the surge in full-time jobs mean for wages? While the acceleration in full-time jobs growth in Australia since the start of the year is clearly a positive development for income and consumption growth, the impact on wage growth and inflation is... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households looking increasingly fragile The slump in real income growth has forced Australian households to reduce their saving rate to a nine-year low in order to continue increasing their spending. This can’t continue indefinitely... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s going on with mining? One recent data release showed that mining investment in Australia is still plunging while another suggested it has started to rebound. Both are technically right, as it all depends on how you measure... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
