Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA, the Royal Commission and housing We suspect that a tightening in lending standards as a result of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct will more than offset any further relaxation in APRA’s lending restrictions to leave... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Low inflation continues to haunt New Zealand Looking past the temporary dip in inflation in the first quarter, which was partly driven by government decisions, there have been some encouraging signs about the outlook for inflation in New Zealand... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA facing up to reality The Reserve Bank of Australia’s apparent downward revision to its previously published 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2018 shows once again that the RBA has been too hopeful. We suspect it will also... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household spending to lose momentum There have been some encouraging data on the health of consumer spending in Australia recently, and with the labour market remaining strong and consumer confidence relatively high there are certainly... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Corporate tax cuts wouldn’t boost the economy much The Australian government’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% by 2026/27 wouldn’t be a boon for the economy for two reasons. First, the tax rate would need to be cut much further to... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Record run of job growth won’t be sustained Following a surprisingly strong 2017, the Australian labour market has started 2018 on a firm footing and business surveys suggest that employment growth will continue to climb in the coming months... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An escalation of trade tariffs poses a big threat You could argue that an escalation of global trade tariffs could actually benefit Australia and New Zealand in the near-term if it caused their currencies to weaken and led China to stimulate its own... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why aren’t Australians working harder? The slump in the annual rate of productivity growth to a 22-year low of -1.0% in the fourth quarter suggests that Australian’s aren’t working very hard and that this will damage their prosperity in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly There goes Australia’s interest rate premium Our relative views on monetary policy in the US and Australia suggest that US 10-year bond yields will rise further above Australian yields this year. While this would be rare, what’s more unusual is... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the interest-only loan market nearing a precipice? There has been a renewed focus in recent weeks on interest-only loans in Australia and the potential risk that these loans present to financial stability, particularly given a large portion of... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will policymakers help housing? Recent suggestions by the Australian Treasurer that APRA could ease its current restrictions on mortgage lending seem to be motivated more by politics than financial stability. With the RBA and APRA... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slicing and dicing inflation Whichever way you look at it, there is very little evidence that the health of the economy is starting to boost inflation in Australia. Out of our six key charts that take a deep dive into the latest... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly TPP and the dazzling dollar The resurrection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership signals that Australia is open for business, but it won’t significantly boost economic growth. A weakening in the Australian dollar from the dazzling... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the strong end to 2017 a sign of things to come? Economic figures released in recent weeks have been notably stronger than expected, suggesting that the Australian economy had plenty of momentum going into the start of this year. But we doubt this... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rest of the world catches up with Australia 2018 may be the year that the Australian economy fails to grow at a much faster pace than the majority of its peers and its interest rate premium is wiped out. This may mean that 10-year bond yields... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
