Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer unlikely to shift the goal posts The Treasurer is currently reviewing the RBA’s inflation target before he signs the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. We doubt there will be any major changes and Governor Lowe gave a... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for gas sector challenging The US may overtake Australia and Qatar to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG by 2024 as production costs in the US are lower than in Australia. For now, that’s not too big a concern as the... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption growth ‘deemed’ to be weak The consensus is slowly edging closer to our forecast that GDP growth in 2019 will be just 1.5%. And high levels of household debt and a lack of fiscal stimulus mean that growth will probably remain... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes for additional fiscal stimulus dashed The economy is now getting support from all sides, with the RBA cutting interest rates, Parliament passing the tax cuts promised in the Budget and APRA loosening constraints on mortgage lending this... 5th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We now expect one extra cut by the RBA & RBNZ Following dovish comments from the RBNZ this week we now expect the Bank to cut rates to 1.0% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, our forecast that the RBA will cut rates to 0.5% by early next year... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA thinks about China slowdown & QE The RBA seems to be getting more concerned about a slowdown in China’s GDP growth and the recent slowdown in visitor arrivals from China will only exacerbate those worries. Meanwhile, Governor Lowe... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market not as rosy as the RBA thought The RBA has moved closer to our view that the natural unemployment may be as low as 4.0%. That means unemployment would need to fall considerably before wage pressures begin to emerge. And we think... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economic outlook is subdued regardless of tariffs Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses remain cautious Business investment probably dropped again in Q1 and with business confidence remaining weak we think private investment will continue to decline over the rest of 2019. By contrast, we suspect the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for housing market has brightened Proposed changes by Australia’s bank regulator will increase the maximum loan size for some borrowers. While that is unlikely to bolster housing demand much at this stage, as the RBA lowers interest... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will not wait much longer before cutting rates Employment growth has picked up over the last couple of months, but with the labour force expanding even faster the unemployment rate has started to rise. With GDP growth below potential and... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy and inflation targets The RBA left rates on hold this week while the RBNZ cut. That’s odd as the case for a rate cut looks much stronger in Australia. In any case, we think that rates will need to fall in Australia as well... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pace of house price declines may be letting up The pace of house price declines has eased in recent months and forward indicators suggest there may be a further slowdown ahead. However, we still expect houses prices to fall by 15% from their peak... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly History suggests the RBA will cut rates in May The easing in underlying inflation this week prompted a sharp decline in market interest rate expectations. That makes sense because an equally weak inflation print prompted the RBA to cut interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade frictions not a major risk to economy China announced this week that its anti-dumping investigation into Australian barley imports will drag on longer than planned, fuelling tensions between the two countries further. While China’s small... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
