Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market will remain RBA’s headache We wouldn’t read too much into October’s largest fall in employment in three years as the monthly data are volatile. But we still expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming months as the... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly GDP growth isn’t picking up The decline in capital goods imports over the past year suggests that business investment is set to fall further in the second half of the year . What's more, the fall in real retail sales in Q3 point... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong goods inflation probably won’t last The resilience in Q3 inflation was driven by the strongest increase in goods prices in a decade. But with import price growth now slowing, we think that strength won’t last. Meanwhile, we’ve lifted... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lack of fiscal stimulus will force the RBA’s hand The new Secretary to the Treasury endorsed the government’s hands-off approach to fiscal policy this week. We suspect the Australian government could increase spending significantly to support the... 25th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will eventually push the QE button The drop in the unemployment rate in September means that the RBA won’t cut interest rates in November. But we still expect the labour market and underlying inflation to weaken over the coming months... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Not confident either economy will improve Consumer and business confidence in Australia have both recently fallen to their weakest levels in years. And we now think GDP growth in New Zealand will slow to 1.5% in 2020. That’s why we think both... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do The RBA’s interest rate cuts are running into diminishing returns as banks are protecting their net interest margins and loan demand remains muted. Meanwhile, the sluggish increase in retail sales in... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling global rates put pressure on central banks The Governors of both the RBNZ and the RBA argued this week that falling interest rates across the globe reflect structural as much as cyclical factors. Given that central banks elsewhere will... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own The Government just missed out on achieving a surplus in the 2018/19 fiscal year, which means itis unlikely to deliver any additional fiscal stimulus in the near term. That leaves the RBA to do the... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus still likely to boost spending The RBA’s interest rate cuts and the additional tax refunds the government announced in May have yet to boost business and consumer confidence. But lower interest and tax payments will free up around... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The recovery in Australian growth will be sluggish GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than we had forecast and there is a good chance that growth picks up a bit in the second half of 2019. On that basis, we have revised up our 2019 GDP growth forecast from... 6th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The sky isn’t falling There have been concerns that the recent inversion of the US yield curve foreshadows a global downturn but we think that the recent easing in lending standards means the probability of a recession in... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for labour market remains challenging The recent weakness in economic activity should start to weigh on jobs growth before long, pushing up the unemployment rate further and resulting in weaker wage growth. While a softer labour market... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t worry, there’s still more “in the tin” The 50 basis point cut by the RBNZ took markets by surprise this week and we now expect the Bank to cut rates to 0.75% by early next year. If the economic outlook deteriorates by considerably more... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Bond yields crashing to new lows Economic data this week confirmed that the Australian economy continues to underperform. Meanwhile, bond yields have been in freefall. In part, that reflects Governor Lowe’s comments last week that... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
