Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA policy tightening getting closer The continued decline in the unemployment rate, along with the Fed’s hawkish shift this week will be putting a bit of pressure on the RBA. And given our view that labour shortages will result in... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lockdowns and bond yields ease The end of the lockdown in Victoria is an upside risk to our forecast that consumption will be unchanged in Australia in Q2. Meanwhile, S&P upgraded Australia’s credit rating outlook but that has... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes The outbreak of the Indian virus variant in Victoria this week highlights the risks from the slow vaccine roll-out. Despite strong investment figures for Q1, we are sticking to our forecast that the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth set to accelerate in Australia April’s labour market figures confirmed that the withdrawal of the JobKeeper wage subsidy wasn’t as big a shock as many had feared. The continued tightening of the labour market should eventually... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining investment boom 2.0 unlikely The surge in the price of iron ore will lift Australia’s export revenues and boost mining profits, but we suspect that the impact on domestic demand will be modest. And with the price of liquefied... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly QE to continue beyond September The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more upbeat about the outlook for GDP growth and the labour market but still expects inflation to fall short of its target. With the Bank showing little... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation to remain subdued for now Inflation was subdued in Q1 and while we expect the plunge in prices in Q2 2020 to cause a surge in inflation this quarter, headline inflation should be just 2% by year-end. More importantly, we... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Domestic travel fuelling recovery The available data suggest that the recovery in consumption stalled at the start of the year and the slow rollout of vaccines could be an additional headwind. However, with the virus all but... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability risks to come back onto the radar The RBA is sticking to its upbeat assessment of Australian households’ financial resilience. But if credit growth picks up and lending standards slip, we think APRA may intervene before long. We now... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Travel bubble & vaccine rollout The Australia-New Zealand travel bubble is set to launch in mid-April which should support employment in the tourism and transport sectors. But employment won’t fully rebound until the tourism returns... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Booming housing & labour markets The RBA and APRA seem to be washing their hands of responsibility for skyrocketing house prices. But we think the likely surge in credit growth in the months ahead means that APRA will be forced to... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government’s housing moves take pressure off RBNZ New tax policies aimed at reducing the appeal of housing as an investment asset in New Zealand, together with the RBNZ’s macroprudential policies, should lead to lower house price growth in the months... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market doesn’t mean RBA will tighten The stronger than expected labour market data will have been a nice surprise to the RBA with the unemployment rate now below its year-end forecast. But we had always expected the unemployment rate to... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA underlines determination to keep policy loose The Reserve Bank of Australia this week pushed back against mounting expectations of policy tightening both via its market operations as well as via a dovish speech by Governor Lowe. We reiterate our... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA taking higher bond yields in its stride The Reserve Bank of Australia’s half-hearted response to the surge in government bond yields underlines that it is not overly worried about the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy. But... 5th March 2021 · 4 mins read
