Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s dovish stance set to be challenged While the RBNZ this week hiked interest rates by 25bp and signalled that more is to come, the RBA remained dovish. That makes sense in light of the continued weakness in underlying inflation and wage... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring food and energy prices to keep inflation high The spike in rural commodity prices should spill over into higher food inflation before long. And while the impact of higher energy commodity prices is less clear cut, we think electricity inflation... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA to impose lending restrictions by mid-2022 While house prices have surged, household debt remains contained and lending standards remain sound overall. However, housing credit growth is set to accelerate and there are already signs that some... 24th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ set to tighten in October, RBA in early-2023 The strong rise in New Zealand’s GDP in Q2 nearly returned output to its pre-virus path despite the headwinds from low net migration and the slump in foreign tourism. So while GDP plunged in Q3, we... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reopening imminent but won’t start with a bang ‘Freedom day’ in New South Wales could be reached in little over a month. But the new freedoms will only be given to vaccinated residents. And the slower progress on vaccination in other states mean... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hospitalisations could pose risk to reopening New South Wales and Victoria look set to remain under heavy restrictions until the vaccinations thresholds can be met. But with cases and hospitalisations surging there is a risk that hospitals will... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reopening moving closer as vaccine rollout speeds up The easing of restrictions for vaccinated people in New South Wales announced today fell short of expectations but with the vaccine rollout accelerating, Australia’s lockdowns should end towards the... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to delay tightening until next year A fresh lockdown upended the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s plan to raise interest rates this week. Given that the latest virus outbreak is driven by the highly contagious Delta variant, we suspect... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine roll-out accelerating as activity stalls The outbreak of the Delta variant in Australia has continued to worsen. More states are now in lockdown and sentiment is deteriorating. That poses a downside risk to our Q3 GDP forecast. However the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may hike rates by 50 basis points in two weeks The tightening in the labour market back to pre-virus levels in Q2 is further evidence that the New Zealand economy is now overheating. As such, the financial markets are right in anticipating a rate... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity to rebound in fourth quarter With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges The RBNZ announced an end to its asset purchases at this week’s meeting. And given the Bank’s hawkish tone, along with the strong inflation data in Q2, we now think the Bank will begin lifting... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s central scenario may signal rate hikes soon The RBA began shifting the stance of monetary policy this week by watering down its commitment to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Bank’s central scenario is still consistent with... 9th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour shortages to persist Job vacancies have continued to surge in Australia highlighting worsening staff shortages in almost every industry. While subdued labour mobility was an initial driver, we estimate that labour... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout at risk of stalling Australia’s vaccine campaign has accelerated in recent months, but we estimate that the pace of vaccinations would have to double to inoculate the adult population by year-end. Unfortunately... 25th June 2021 · 4 mins read
