Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Migration not the sole cause for productivity slump While subdued capital spending has contributed to the slump in productivity, the recent plunge in the capital/labour ratio can only partly be explained by the surge in net migration. 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s next move will be down As had been widely expected, the RBA handed down a 25bp rate hike at its meeting today. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, we believe the Bank’s tightening cycle is over. If we’re right that the... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Consumers will pull back as financial strains build There are growing indications that household finances are coming under pressure as mortgagors struggle with rising debt-servicing costs. Although households benefit from substantial liquidity buffers... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The impact of net migration on Australia’s economy Most of the recent surge in net migration has been driven by the increased arrival of foreign students, who generally spend less, work fewer hours and demand less housing than the average Australian... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s next move will be down With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Interest rates haven’t reached their peak yet While new RBA Governor Michelle Bullock didn’t spring any surprises at her first interest rate decision today, we think that the Bank will hike interest rates to a peak of 4.35% at its next meeting in... 3rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates as soon as early-2024 The RBA retained its tightening bias when it kept interest rates unchanged at 4.10% today. However, we think the Bank’s next move will be a rate cut, perhaps as early as the first quarter of next year... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD likely to remain under pressure The cyclically-sensitive antipodean currencies have had a tough year so far, and a fair bit of bad news already appears priced in to both the aussie and the kiwi. Nonetheless, we don’t think their... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Will public and foreign demand prevent a recession? With inflation cooling, the government may soon become more willing to support the economy, but we doubt it will provide as much support as it did during the global financial crisis. However, net... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals extended pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold, as was widely expected. However, the minutes of today’s meeting were unambiguously on the hawkish side, with the Committee indicating the need to... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing rebound has further to run We previously argued that stretched housing affordability and a looser labour market would result in a second leg down in house prices. However, with the housing market going from strength to strength... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA stays on hold again The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.10% for the second consecutive month. And while the Board continued to strike some hawkish notes, there is a good chance that its tightening... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian consumer hits speed bump Provisional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that consumer spending slumped in Q2, as households sharply pared back discretionary expenditure. Faced with falling real incomes and... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s hiking cycle is over The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave rates on hold at 5.50% came as a surprise to no one. Indeed, the Committee noted that monetary policy in New Zealand had turned restrictive far... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Who will be the next RBA Governor? Press reports suggest that Department of Finance Secretary Jenny Wilkinson is the front-runner to become the next Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, though Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
