Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s next move will be down With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Interest rates haven’t reached their peak yet While new RBA Governor Michelle Bullock didn’t spring any surprises at her first interest rate decision today, we think that the Bank will hike interest rates to a peak of 4.35% at its next meeting in... 3rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates as soon as early-2024 The RBA retained its tightening bias when it kept interest rates unchanged at 4.10% today. However, we think the Bank’s next move will be a rate cut, perhaps as early as the first quarter of next year... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD likely to remain under pressure The cyclically-sensitive antipodean currencies have had a tough year so far, and a fair bit of bad news already appears priced in to both the aussie and the kiwi. Nonetheless, we don’t think their... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Will public and foreign demand prevent a recession? With inflation cooling, the government may soon become more willing to support the economy, but we doubt it will provide as much support as it did during the global financial crisis. However, net... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals extended pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold, as was widely expected. However, the minutes of today’s meeting were unambiguously on the hawkish side, with the Committee indicating the need to... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing rebound has further to run We previously argued that stretched housing affordability and a looser labour market would result in a second leg down in house prices. However, with the housing market going from strength to strength... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA stays on hold again The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.10% for the second consecutive month. And while the Board continued to strike some hawkish notes, there is a good chance that its tightening... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian consumer hits speed bump Provisional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that consumer spending slumped in Q2, as households sharply pared back discretionary expenditure. Faced with falling real incomes and... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s hiking cycle is over The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave rates on hold at 5.50% came as a surprise to no one. Indeed, the Committee noted that monetary policy in New Zealand had turned restrictive far... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Who will be the next RBA Governor? Press reports suggest that Department of Finance Secretary Jenny Wilkinson is the front-runner to become the next Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, though Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tightening cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 4.10% today suggests that interest rates may not rise all the way to 4.85% as we expect, but further tightening still seems likely. 4th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA bond sales wouldn’t be a big headwind The Reserve Bank of Australia is considering actively selling its bond holdings rather than merely letting them shrink gradually via bond redemptions. The main motivation seems to be to reduce... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth mostly cyclical One reason for the slump in productivity is that the recent surge in working hours is producing diminishing returns. And we suspect that disruptions caused by the pandemic prevented firms from... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cash rate of 4.85% will push economy into recession In response to the hawkish shift by RBA Governor Lowe and the further acceleration in unit labour cost growth, we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 4.85% by September. That aggressive... 7th June 2023 · 6 mins read
