Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New Zealand dollar won’t continue to defy gravity The New Zealand dollar may not to be able to defy gravity for much longer as a shrinking interest rate premium could drag it down from US$0.73 now to around US$0.65 by the end of the year. That would... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loss of AAA rating wouldn't raise borrowing costs S&P’s decision to revise Australia’s AAA credit rating from stable to negative is another political blow for the Coalition, but it doesn’t mean much for the financial markets, the States or the banks 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not too worried by political uncertainty By leaving interest rates at 1.75% and not providing a very strong hint that they will be cut in August, the Reserve Bank of Australia today implied that the recent financial market volatility and... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the election mean for the economy and markets? The fallout on the economy and financial markets from the uncertain outcome of the Federal election will probably be relatively mild and short-lived and is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Brexit not a major threat Last week’s vote by the UK to leave the EU isn’t a major threat to the Australian and New Zealand economies, especially when the resulting volatility in the financial markets appears to be fading. 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Housing heat changes RBNZ’s rate-cutting timetable Despite leaving interest rates at 2.25% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still hinted that they may fall to 2.0% before long. What’s more, we still think there’s a chance that rates may have to... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA treading water in uncharted territory It was no surprise after cutting interest rates in May that the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold at 1.75% today. But by not sending a signal that rates will fall further, it has become a... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How Lowe will interest rates go? The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new forecast that underlying inflation will remain below the 2-3% target range until mid-2018 supports our view that interest rates will soon be cut by a further 0.25%... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5% Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.75% will help solve the economy’s twin problems of too slow growth and too low underlying inflation. It also... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rates will reach a floor of 1.75% in New Zealand We don’t believe that the slightly more positive tone of the policy statement released after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates on hold at 2.25% today will prevent the Bank from... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Actions rather than words may be needed to weaken the Australian dollar We were right to suggest that, while leaving interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, the Reserve Bank of Australia would use the policy statement to try to talk the dollar down. Whether or not this will... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Growing chance that rates in New Zealand fall below 2.0% Today’s 0.25% cut in interest rates in New Zealand, to 2.25% from 2.50%, will have been a surprise to most analysts and the financial markets. But as early as July last year we forecast that rates... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may have to step in to weaken dollar The strengthening in the Australian dollar to an eight-month high of US$0.74 has left it at a level that poses a serious threat to the economic outlook. This may prompt the RBA to resume its campaign... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA inching towards reducing rates again The Reserve Bank of Australia today once again decided to leave interest rates at 2.0%, but we don’t think it will be long before a weakening in the economic outlook and a further fall in underlying... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in our Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients on 27th January), but in this note we... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Spending boost from net migration not departing just yet The record level of net migration appears to explain around half of the rise in real consumption in New Zealand in the past two years. If net migration slows steadily as is widely expected, then this... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
