Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Sep.) The decline in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in September suggests that the easing in GDP growth over the past year continued in the third quarter. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA admits it will miss its inflation target for two more years The Reserve Bank of Australia admitted in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy that underlying inflation will be below its 2-3% target for a year longer than it previously thought. We have been saying... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gives the new government the thumbs up More interesting than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) having now left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for a year was the Bank’s verdict on the impact of the new government. It believes that... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA too complacent on households and inflation Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates at 1.5% for the 15 th month today, we don’t think it is placing enough weight on the recent weakening in retail sales and softer news... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New CPI weights mean sub-2% inflation lasts longer The new CPI spending weights suggest that inflation will be 0.2 percentage points lower than otherwise over the next two years and therefore support our view that underlying inflation will stay below... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Aug.) The bounce back in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in August is encouraging, but the weak start to the third quarter means GDP growth may still be slowing. We expect GDP growth to rebound to... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Economy may slow sooner under new government We are not yet changing our forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates or the dollar due to the news that a Labour-NZ First-Greens coalition led by Jacinda Ardern will form the next... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong jobs growth isn’t a silver bullet for households The sizeable pick-up in employment growth in recent months presents an upside risk to our forecast that consumption growth will slow notably this year. But in light of the other headwinds restraining... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA becoming more confident in the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia may have left interest rates at 1.5% for the 14th month today, but its growing confidence in the outlook for activity and inflation may mean it will be prepared to signal... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ remains one of the most dovish central banks There remains plenty of uncertainty around the formation of the next government and who will be the next permanent Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, but the one consistency is the dovish... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jul.) Following the bounce back in GDP growth last quarter, the decline in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in July suggests that the economy lost some momentum at the start of the third quarter. That... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Post-election negotiations may influence economy The financial markets won’t worry too much about how long it takes the various parties to form a government after the weekend’s general election, but the negotiations could influence the outlook for... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Election may not dent the kiwi dollar much The outcome of the general election on Saturday may well alter the paths that New Zealand’s economy and the kiwi dollar tread over the next few years. But we doubt that any initial reaction would be... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Near-term downside risks to dollar declining The recent rise of the Australian dollar to US$0.80 and developments overseas have led us to revise up our end-year forecast from US$0.70 to US$0.75. But we still believe that a fall in iron ore... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA is stuck in neutral The Reserve Bank of Australia has now left interest rates at 1.5% for 13 months and we suspect the combination of subdued GDP growth, low inflation and a growing focus on financial stability will mean... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jun.) The notable rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) over the second quarter as a whole indicates that GDP growth may have accelerated from a disappointingly weak 0.5% q/q in the first quarter to... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
