Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Apr.) GDP growth was surprisingly weak in the first quarter and the slowdown in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in April suggests activity was subdued at the start of the second quarter too. However... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ won’t raise rates next year as markets expect The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% today and repeat its comment that they will stay there for a “considerable period” should prompt the financial markets to... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reports of a new GDP record are fake news Contrary to what you may have heard, the rise in GDP in the first quarter does not mean that Australia now holds the record for the longest period in modern history without a recession. It’s true that... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA willing to ignore the weak economy Even though the economy may have contracted in the first quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates at 1.5% today and retained its optimistic view on the economic outlook. We suspect... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The shifting shape of economic growth The economy appears to be in a new phase where mining investment is no longer as big a drag on growth but net exports, consumption and dwellings investment are providing less support. The risk is that... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) The further pick-up in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in March means it is now consistent with the 0.4% q/q increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter being followed by a much more respectable rise of... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ wary of raising interest rates too soon The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% today and signal that it doesn’t expect to raise rates until late 2019 supports our view that the financial markets have got... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lowe’s confidence in the economy grows The upbeat tone of the Statement on Monetary Policy confirms that the Reserve Bank of Australia has become less worried about low inflation and that further interest rates cuts have become much less... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s low inflation fears fade The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the eighth meeting in a row today and we doubt it will be in a position to raise rates until at least 2019. There is still a risk... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) indicates that the slowdown in GDP growth at the end of last year was temporary. In fact, February’s NZAP is consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth, from 0.4% q... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A subtle shift in the RBA’s rhetoric The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was always going to leave interest rates at 1.5% today, but there are some subtle signs that the Bank is becoming more concerned about the outlook for the labour... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tighter mortgage lending rules raise chances of more rate cuts Today’s announcement that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has introduced tighter mortgage lending rules will go some way to addressing the RBA’s concerns about the overheating housing... 31st March 2017 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ keen for the dollar to weaken further The Reserve Bank of New Zealand used today’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% to emphasise once again that rates won’t be raised either this year or next. The financial markets are slowly... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA remains more optimistic than most The statement released after the Reserve Bank of Australia today left interest rates at 1.5% remained fairly balanced, but recent speeches have made it clear that the RBA doesn’t intend to cut... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Is the RBA’s optimism signal or spin? There is definitely a role for the Reserve Bank of Australia to manage expectations by signalling where it thinks the economy is heading. But by sounding more optimistic than its own forecasts, there... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA plots near-perfect projections The new forecasts published in February’s Statement of Monetary Policy show that the RBA is largely expecting Australia’s slow growth and low underlying inflation problems to be solved over the next... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read