Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Downbeat businesses pose a downside risk Our relatively bearish view that GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2.0% next year has always been based on the idea that the end of the migration and housing booms would weaken consumption... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Petrol prices eat into tax and minimum wage windfall A large chunk of the boost to consumption from the income tax cuts and the rise in the minimum wage, both of which came into effect on 1st July, is being offset by the leap in petrol prices. Moreover... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s global and housing concerns grow Growing concerns about the global trade dispute and the deepening domestic housing downturn mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave interest rates at 1.5%, as it did at today’s... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ acknowledging the growing downside risks The changes to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy statement after it left interest rates at 1.75% today are more cosmetic than substantive. But the Bank has acknowledged the growing... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Apr.) The lacklustre rise in our NZAP in April suggests that after slowing in the first quarter the economy failed to regain much momentum in the second. We expect growth will continue to slow from here. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The possible spillovers from the US-China trade spat The escalating trade spat between the US and China could potentially boost the Australian economy in the near-term. But any reduction in global trade would be bad news for Australia in the long-term... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not that worried by Royal Commission While leaving interest rates at the record low of 1.5% again today, the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it is not too worried about the economic implications of the Royal Commission... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) Despite a bounce back in March, our New Zealand Activity Proxy is still pointing to a modest easing in GDP growth over the first quarter as a whole. And we expect growth will continue to struggle this... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, fresh style, same story While new Governor Adrian Orr’s communication style is clearer and more conversational than his predecessors, the outlook for policy remains much the same. The RBNZ left interest rates at 1.75% and... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still ruling out a near-term rate hike The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Statement on Monetary Policy provided a clearer sign that the RBA has moved on from wondering if interest rates need to rise to considering when they will rise. But the... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What next for the Aussie and kiwi dollars? The recent weakening in the Australian and New Zealand dollars probably has a bit further to go and the big risks still lie on the downside. That said, a shift in interest rate differentials next year... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA continues to signal only “gradual” improvement The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 1.5% for the 19th meeting in a row today and continued to signal that a near-term rate hike is unlikely. Further ahead, with GDP growth likely to... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) The sharp drop in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in February is probably overstating the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter. Nonetheless, it does appear that the economy started 2018 on a... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Funding spike won’t push up mortgage rates much The recent rise in banks’ short-term funding costs would probably need to triple before banks could justify raising their mortgage rates by 0.25%, which would be equivalent to a hike in the official... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Global events may keep the RBA on hold for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more worried about trade tariffs and rising global bank funding costs. Coming on top of the weakness of the housing market and wage growth, it is becoming even... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jan.) The fairly modest rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in January suggests that the economy failed to gain much momentum at the start of the year. Looking ahead, we continue to expect GDP growth to... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
