Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Activity proxy still points to a softening in growth Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) suggests economic activity remains soft and that the slowing in GDP growth has further to run. That supports our view that GDP growth will weaken from 2.8% in... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Spending boost from lower petrol prices won’t last The recent declines in petrol prices may boost consumer spending by around 0.6 percentage points in the first half of 2019. But we suspect that this impact won’t be enough to prevent consumption... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Government only offers Christmas crumbs The Coalition Government indicated in today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook that it will present some sweeteners ahead of the upcoming election. Even so, fiscal policy will become more... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Flatter US yield curve no big deal for Australia While the flattening of the US yield curve suggests that the US economy is likely to slow soon, it doesn’t tell us much about developments in Australia. And while we expect Australia’s yield curve to... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cautious RBA may only hike rates in late-2020 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a little more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% for the 28th month. That supports our view that rates will not rise until late in 2020... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Looser LTV constraints won’t reignite housing market The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to ease mortgage lending restrictions probably won’t result in a major pick-up in lending and home sales. And with house prices looking stretched relative to... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA can hike while Fed cuts Australia’s economy has become less sensitive to conditions in the US as their trade links have diminished. The upshot is that the RBA should be able to hike interest rates in 2020 even if our... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Easing net migration a headwind to GDP growth Policy changes and a narrowing between the relative attractiveness of Australia and New Zealand will contribute to a slowdown in net migration to New Zealand. Easing net migration will cause growth in... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ turns a little more hawkish The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted its inflation forecasts a little bit when it decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75% today. But it still signalled that rates won’t rise until... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update House prices will fall further despite supply response The recent slump in building approvals suggests that the supply overhang in the housing market may disappear next year. But we still think that the current downturn will prove to be the longest and... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA's optimism unlikely to materialise The upward revision to the RBA’s growth and inflation forecasts suggest that the Bank is moving closer to tightening policy. But we still think that the downturn in the housing market will result in... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update House prices falls will weigh on consumer spending Households responded to rising house prices by lifting spending and we think they will eventually respond to falling prices with lower spending. This wealth effect may lower annual GDP growth by 0.3... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Revisiting the fallout from the US-China trade war Even though Australia is strongly dependent on the health of China’s economy, it won’t suffer much from China’s escalating trade conflict with the US. If anything, in the near-term it will benefit... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Economy unlikely to live up to RBA’s expectations The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a bit more confident in its economic outlook when it decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5% for the 26th month today. But we still think that GDP... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ keeps the faith in optimistic forecasts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the faith in its relatively optimistic forecasts for the economy while leaving interest rates at 1.75% for the 22 nd month today, but you could argue that the... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read