Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy... 14th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Downturn in homebuilding has much further to run The blowout in the pipeline of unfinished houses during the pandemic will reverse by the end of this year. With building approvals very low, dwellings investment will therefore fall further. While... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflationary pressures in the labour market set to chill All signs are that unit labour cost growth in New Zealand will plummet in the coming quarters. Coupled with subdued domestic demand, that should feed through to lower non-tradables inflation in short... 9th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA continues to eye its so-called “narrow path” The RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold at its meeting today suggests that there is a high bar for any further tightening of monetary policy. Indeed, the Board seems keen on minimising the... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The housing rebound that began early last year continued to lose momentum in April. With affordability likely to remain stretched for the foreseeable future, house price growth will only ease further... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The shortfalls of the Monthly CPI Indicator The different treatment of prices collected annually is a key reason why the quarterly CPI measure rose much faster last quarter than the Monthly CPI Indicator had indicated. While it’s possible to... 29th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Productivity malaise may last until end of this decade Weak capital spending is a key reason for Australia’s poor productivity performance. While investment growth has been strong recently, we think it will take until the second half of this decade before... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ remains on the sidelines The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t drop any hints as to when it might pivot to looser policy at its meeting today. However, as inflation risks recede, we still expect the Bank to start cutting... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) Australian house prices continued to pare their gains last month. And a further loss of momentum appears likely in the near term, especially given that the RBA is unlikely to come to the housing... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA tones down hawkish bias ever so slightly The RBA sounded a touch less hawkish at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will start to lower interest rates by August. 19th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade. 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on borrowed time The Reserve Bank of New Zealand handed down another hawkish hold at its meeting today. However, with inflation on track to return to its 1-3% target by mid-year, we still expect the Bank to start... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflation will fall into target band this year Non-labour input costs are now moderating which should soon result in a more rapid slowdown in consumer price inflation than most are anticipating. 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling... 14th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA pours cold water on the prospect of early rate cuts With the Reserve Bank of Australia still striking a hawkish tone at its meeting today, we’re pushing back our forecast for the Bank’s first rate cut from May. But we still think that incoming data... 6th February 2024 · 3 mins read
