Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian fiscal stimulus may avert a recession The large fiscal stimulus package unveiled today may be able to prevent a recession. But we still expect the RBA to cut rates to 0.25% and launch quantitative easing over the next few months. 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates We think that the coronavirus outbreak and the related disruptions in China and to tourism more broadly will push the New Zealand economy into recession. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to slash rates... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Counting the cost of the coronavirus outbreak In a moderate scenario where demand returns to pre-coronavirus levels by year-end, we estimate that the outbreak of the disease will knock off 1% from GDP growth this year. In a more severe scenario... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will the RBA launch a yield curve target? Most central banks that have introduced quantitative easing in recent years have done so by pledging to buy a certain amount of government bonds. Our base case is that the RBA will do the same when it... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Australian fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming We expect the Treasury to announce only a small fiscal package of around $2bn in response to the coronavirus outbreak. With economic activity slowing sharply and revenues undershooting expectations... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA to cut rates to 0.25% in April With the impact of the coronavirus on economic activity set to intensify, we expect the RBA to follow up today’s 25bp rate cut with another 25bp cut in April. It looks increasingly likely that the... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus raises pressure on RBA to cut rates The slump in China’s PMIs in February and the continued spread of the coronavirus beyond China has raised the odds that the RBA will cut interest rates at tomorrow’s meeting. On balance though, we... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus on exports We estimate that the disruptions to China’s economic activity in the wake of the coronavirus will reduce Australia’s total exports by 3% this month. The drag from fewer Chinese students and tourists... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Infrastructure spending takes pressure off RBNZ The New Zealand government’s $12 billion infrastructure package should contribute to a pick-up in business investment and GDP growth from the second half of this year. That supports our view that... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - The RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded confident when it left rates on hold today and we think the improvement in underlying economic conditions means the RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over. 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA under less pressure to cut rates The RBA may yet cut rates to 0.25% in response to the drag on economic activity from the bushfires and the coronavirus. But with domestic demand rebounding as the housing slump has turned to boom, the... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus counter-measures to cause GDP to fall The ultimate impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China on the Australian economy will depend on how quickly the virus is brought under control. But given the disruption that has already happened to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA will have to cut rates this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we think persistent weakness in the underlying economy will force the Bank to cut interest rates to 0.5% in... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - How overvalued is Australian housing? Even though house prices in Sydney and Melbourne plunged during the housing downturn, the house price to earnings ratio in both cities is still 40% higher than it was a decade ago. However, we think... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mining’s dominance to end regardless of bushfires We doubt that the bushfire crisis will prompt a major shift in the Australian government’s attitude towards the mining industry. But the sector’s importance is set to decline either way as mining... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
