Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ unleashes full QE firepower New Zealand is set to enter a near-total lockdown this week which will cause economic activity to all but stop. The RBNZ launched quantitative easing today, but we think that more monetary stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Fiscal support ramped up as shutdown looms Australia is moving closer to shutting down a large share of its services sector and we now expect GDP to fall by 4% this year. The government is responding with a second, larger fiscal stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Second stimulus will focus on damage control We suspect that the fiscal stimulus package that will be unveiled over the weekend will focus on limiting the damage from the coronavirus outbreak rather than on providing a large boost to demand... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may have to expand asset purchases further The RBA today announced a comprehensive set of measures to combat the disruptions to economic activity and financial markets caused by the coronavirus outbreak. If credit markets remain impaired for... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in output to trigger large policy response The draconian coronavirus containment measures adopted by Australia’s government mean that we now expect GDP to fall by 2% this year. The Australian government is likely to respond with a larger... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession imminent, more stimulus will be needed While the New Zealand government’s large stimulus package will soften the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, it will not prevent a recession. As such, we still expect the RBNZ to launch quantitative... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus to lift corporate defaults Australian firms were in good shape on the eve of the coronavirus outbreak, but the impending collapse in foreign tourism and weaker retail spending will lift loan write-offs in those sectors. The... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Recession in Australia is now very likely New comprehensive restrictions on travel mean that both Australia and New Zealand are headed for recession. We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to follow up today’s emergency 75bp rate cut with... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian fiscal stimulus may avert a recession The large fiscal stimulus package unveiled today may be able to prevent a recession. But we still expect the RBA to cut rates to 0.25% and launch quantitative easing over the next few months. 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates We think that the coronavirus outbreak and the related disruptions in China and to tourism more broadly will push the New Zealand economy into recession. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to slash rates... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Counting the cost of the coronavirus outbreak In a moderate scenario where demand returns to pre-coronavirus levels by year-end, we estimate that the outbreak of the disease will knock off 1% from GDP growth this year. In a more severe scenario... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will the RBA launch a yield curve target? Most central banks that have introduced quantitative easing in recent years have done so by pledging to buy a certain amount of government bonds. Our base case is that the RBA will do the same when it... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Australian fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming We expect the Treasury to announce only a small fiscal package of around $2bn in response to the coronavirus outbreak. With economic activity slowing sharply and revenues undershooting expectations... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA to cut rates to 0.25% in April With the impact of the coronavirus on economic activity set to intensify, we expect the RBA to follow up today’s 25bp rate cut with another 25bp cut in April. It looks increasingly likely that the... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus raises pressure on RBA to cut rates The slump in China’s PMIs in February and the continued spread of the coronavirus beyond China has raised the odds that the RBA will cut interest rates at tomorrow’s meeting. On balance though, we... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
