Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Soaring public debt unlikely to hold back recovery Today’s fiscal update was a damp squib as the Treasurer didn’t present fiscal forecasts beyond June 2021 and didn’t unveil fresh fiscal support. While the government’s current forecasts are very close... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - JobKeeper extension to keep lid on unemployment The government will extend the JobKeeper wage subsidy by six months. Unemployment benefits will be made less generous which should encourage many of those having dropped out of the labour force to... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may yet have to expand bond purchases The RBA sounded more optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today. But with the recovery set to remain bumpy and inflation likely to weaken more sharply than the Bank is anticipating, we... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Shift to online spending should outlast virus impact Online sales surged during the lockdown and rose further even as the Australian and New Zealand economies were opening up again. We suspect online sales will remain high which means measures of... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A look at Australia’s corporate balance sheets We estimate that the revenues of firms in most sectors were still too low in mid-June to generate profits. If those conditions persisted, nearly one-third of firms would run out of cash by the end of... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to go negative in 2021 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sounded fairly balanced when it left policy settings unchanged today. But we still think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Sugar-high in consumption may not last Consumer spending is bouncing back more strongly than we had anticipated. However, that partly reflects pent-up demand and the strong support from government initiatives. Employment income has slumped... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia-China trade tensions unlikely to boil over The rising trade tensions between Australia and China in recent weeks are unlikely to meaningfully damage Australian exports. While China may introduce tariffs on Australian coal, it is unlikely to... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation set to fall sharply The sharp decline in activity in Australia is set to result in much weaker inflation before long. And even though output will recover rapidly over the coming months as virus restrictions are eased, we... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Homebuyer grants won’t prevent falling house prices The government today unveiled a grant for buyers of new homes. While grants for first-time home buyers boosted home sales during the global financial crisis, the new scheme won’t offset the impact of... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA to expand quantitative easing soon The RBA sounded cautiously optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still think that it will expand government bond purchases soon. 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Investors won’t save the housing market Investors are not increasing their demand for housing and even if they did, owner-occupiers account for 70% of overall housing demand. The upshot is that investors won’t prevent house prices from... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Jobs Budget should limit rise in unemployment rate The additional $16bn of spending in today’s Budget along with a relatively fast relaxation of the Covid-19 restrictions should reduce the number of job losses in New Zealand. Add in a sharp reduction... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) massively expanded its annual target for asset purchases at its meeting today and we still think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long. 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s border closure will hit harder in Q2 The border closure will result in a collapse in revenue from foreign tourists and a marked fall in revenue from foreign students in Q2. And while the government will probably allow foreign students to... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Output won’t return to normal anytime soon Economic activity in New Zealand has started to rebound after its severe lockdown has come to an end. But there are a number of reasons why output won’t return to normal anytime soon. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
