Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation set to fall sharply The sharp decline in activity in Australia is set to result in much weaker inflation before long. And even though output will recover rapidly over the coming months as virus restrictions are eased, we... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Homebuyer grants won’t prevent falling house prices The government today unveiled a grant for buyers of new homes. While grants for first-time home buyers boosted home sales during the global financial crisis, the new scheme won’t offset the impact of... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA to expand quantitative easing soon The RBA sounded cautiously optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still think that it will expand government bond purchases soon. 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Investors won’t save the housing market Investors are not increasing their demand for housing and even if they did, owner-occupiers account for 70% of overall housing demand. The upshot is that investors won’t prevent house prices from... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Jobs Budget should limit rise in unemployment rate The additional $16bn of spending in today’s Budget along with a relatively fast relaxation of the Covid-19 restrictions should reduce the number of job losses in New Zealand. Add in a sharp reduction... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) massively expanded its annual target for asset purchases at its meeting today and we still think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long. 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s border closure will hit harder in Q2 The border closure will result in a collapse in revenue from foreign tourists and a marked fall in revenue from foreign students in Q2. And while the government will probably allow foreign students to... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Output won’t return to normal anytime soon Economic activity in New Zealand has started to rebound after its severe lockdown has come to an end. But there are a number of reasons why output won’t return to normal anytime soon. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Interest rates to remain close to 0% for years The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today left its interest rate targets unchanged but an easing of collateral requirements should provide some support to corporate bond markets. While the financial... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What does lower net migration mean for Australia? The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential GDP growth by as much as 1% for as long as it lasts. What’s more, it seems likely that net migration will be lower than before the virus... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices may fall sharply in the coming years The RBNZ’s decision to lift LVR restrictions is unlikely to provide much support to house prices in New Zealand. We think that the sharp decline in home sales and confidence together with the likely... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will Australia’s bank tighten lending standards? Australian banks have passed through the RBA’s recent cuts to some but not all of their lending rates and have tightened lending standards a bit. With banks now in better shape than during the global... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may yet have to launch negative rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) didn’t announce additional measures at today’s meeting and given the easing in tensions on financial markets we think it won’t adjust policy settings over the... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment The government assumes that around a quarter of all employees will benefit from the huge wage subsidy unveiled today. Indeed, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 12% instead of our previous... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Complete lockdown could lower GDP by 30% in Q2 We estimate that a lockdown that would limit activity to “essential services” could knock off as much as 30-40% from Australia’s GDP for as long as it lasts. A lockdown is imminent and our best guess... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - House prices should start to fall soon The ban on home auctions and open house viewings will probably result in lower home sales and there’s a growing risk that the government will ban the buying and selling of real estate altogether. Even... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
