Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates in 2022 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stuck to its dovish stance when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to raise rates towards the end of next year. 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dovish RBA to expand QE by another $100bn in June The Reserve Bank of Australia stuck to its dovish stance despite the strength in recent data so we reiterate our view that it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in June. 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of a travel bubble would be small Even if the long-rumoured Australia-New Zealand travel bubble does go ahead, it wouldn’t make a huge difference to either economy. We think the bubble would give a small boost to New Zealand’s GDP and... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lending standards remain sound Housing finance commitments have surged in recent months pointing to a rise in credit growth before long. But we don’t think lending standards have been eroded so this shouldn’t stop the RBA from... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lowe lifts bar for policy tightening further Today’s dovish speech by RBA Governor Lowe supports our view that the RBA is set to keep monetary policy accommodative for a long time to come. But concerns about the functioning of the bond market... 10th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Border closure to knock 2% off GDP by end-2022 The slow progress in rolling out vaccines in New Zealand means that its border may only be reopened by the end of this year. With net migration boosting population growth by around 1%-pt per annum... 8th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Trade conflict with China knocking 0.5% off GDP While Australia’s non-iron ore export volumes to China have slumped by 40% over the past year, coal miners have been able to divert their shipments to other countries. The upshot is that the conflict... 4th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to expand QE again in June The Reserve Bank of Australia today doubled down on its commitment to keep monetary policy settings loose and we reiterate our view that it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s housing focus could bring forward rate hikes We doubt that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s new obligation to consider house prices will drastically change the outlook for monetary policy. But given that house price growth remains very strong... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Pessimistic RBNZ set to be surprised The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sounded dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to begin increasing rates next year. 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation to be stable despite stronger exchange rate While the exchange rate has strengthened sharply, goods prices are unlikely to fall. That should allow rising services prices to keep underlying inflation stable. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Employment in hardest-hit sectors set to bounce back With job losses during the pandemic concentrated in a handful of sectors and demand set to rebound as vaccines are rolled out, we think that the unemployment rate will fall to 5.5% by the end of this... 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Dwellings investment to rebound this year The recent surge in building approvals has largely been driven by the HomeBuilder Grant and probably won’t last. But with home sales soaring and house prices rising, dwellings investment should... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may extend QE one more time We are more upbeat about the outlook for the economy than the Reserve Bank of Australia. But the RBA seems keen to err on the side of caution. With the latest extension of its QE programme already... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may end QE by mid-year The RBA today upgraded its labour market forecasts but noted that the recovery remained dependent on “significant fiscal and monetary support”. Indeed, the Bank extended its Bond Purchase Program by... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Labour market scarring may prompt extension of QE Our base case remains that the RBA will end quantitative easing in April. However, one risk to that forecast is the rising share of long-term unemployment. 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
