Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Stretched affordability bodes poorly for housing cycle

Although Australian house prices edged up a notch in November, we remain sceptical about prospects for a second wind in the housing cycle. Given that the RBA is unlikely to provide interest-rate...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

US import tariffs: your questions answered

We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked.

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Why is the RBNZ slashing rates but the RBA is not?

While the RBNZ started hiking rates earlier during the recent tightening cycle than the RBA, it also lifted rates to a higher peak. The RBA tempered the degree of tightening in order to preserve the...

28th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ still on track to cut rates to 2.25%

We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.25%, at its meeting next week. With inflation back at target, the labour market loosening rapidly and activity in the...

20th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Rising household size will weigh on house prices

A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low...

18th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Weakness in productivity growth partly structural

The recent weakness in productivity growth is only partly due to a cyclical hangover from the pandemic as it also reflects the structural weakness in investment. With investment growth set to remain...

7th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will start cutting rates early next year

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the...

5th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)

Australia’s housing rally continued to lose steam in October. However, with the RBA set to cut interest rates from early-2025, there are good reasons not to be too bearish on the outlook for house...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts

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Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Central banks will shrug off oil price risks

With the price of crude oil continuing to climb higher, we could soon see a resurgence in fuel inflation in both Australia and New Zealand. However, if we’re right that any pickup in oil prices will...

8th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Off-budget boost to spending won’t last

The federal budget foresees an unusually large jump in cash outflows that don’t feed into the underlying cash balance in 2024/25. However, the actual boost to activity will be much smaller than the...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will deliver a 50bp cut next Wednesday

We expect the RBNZ to move its easing cycle up a gear and cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bp at its meeting next week. What’s more, given the Bank’s tendency to loosen policy aggressively, we think...

2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)

With new listings rising rapidly, the housing market is shifting in favour of buyers. Accordingly, we think house price growth will ease further in the months ahead.

1st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Surge in serviceability-exempted loans not a big threat

While banks have issued more housing loans that don’t meet APRA’s serviceability guidelines over the last couple of years, we aren’t convinced that this poses significant risks to financial stability.

30th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will only cut rates in first half of next year

The RBA didn’t discuss a rate hike at today’s meeting for the first time since March but reiterated its pledge that it won’t cut interest rates “in the near-term”. While the risks are starting to tilt...

24th September 2024 · 3 mins read