Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A primer on Australia’s general election The upcoming federal election on 3rd May appears likely to result in a hung parliament. Although the ruling Labor party’s recent uptick in the polls suggest that it is in pole position to form a... 16th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weaker business confidence would force RBA’s hand While the recent drop in crude oil prices would lower inflation a bit, that drag will be more than offset by a boost from the weaker Australian dollar. The upshot is that barring a sharp fall in... 14th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out trade war scenarios President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other... 10th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How an escalation of the trade war could affect ANZ Australia and New Zealand are safe havens in the current global trade storm because they have small manufacturing sectors, export little to the US and haven’t been hit with high US tariffs. We’re... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reserve Bank of Australia will only cut rates to 3.6% While the RBA is becoming increasingly confident that inflation will sustainably return to target, we still expect its easing cycle to be shallower than most anticipate. 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA rate cuts won’t do much for housing affordability Australian house price growth remained soft in March, amid still-weak housing demand. Although the RBA’s easing cycle could help deliver a shift in momentum later this year, stretched affordability is... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will look past pre-election budget sweeteners As expected, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers unveiled a slew of new spending measures in today’s pre-election Budget. However, we don’t believe the scope of fiscal expansion is large enough to keep... 25th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price slowdown has further to run The modest uptick in Australian house prices last month is unlikely to mark the beginning of a meaningful rally. With the Reserve Bank of Australia set to deliver a shallow easing cycle, housing... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD: The Trump Trade’s worst victims? The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fared worse than almost every other currency over the past few months. We think they will continue to do so. 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further than most expect Having handed down a third consecutive 50bp rate cut at its meeting today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to slow the pace of easing going forward. That said, we still think there’s a... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA signals a slow pace of policy normalisation When the Reserve Bank of Australia handed down its inaugural 25bp cut today, it indicated that any further withdrawal of monetary restriction would be limited, given residual inflationary pressures... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ Watch: RBNZ has several more cuts in the pipeline The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut rates by 50bp, to 3.75%, at its meeting on 19th February. Although the Bank is likely to revert to 25bp cuts thereafter, we think it has much... 12th February 2025 · 6 mins read
