Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of market moves amid the turmoil While the backdrop has shifted dramatically, we still think there’s a strong case for our existing forecasts of a further rally in long-dated bonds by the end of the year, and some near-term strength... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Banking stress raises another dilemma for central banks We are resending this Stress Monitor to include clients of our Global Economics Service. The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened... 16th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How King Cash may reign over equities & bonds The US may not have a monarchy, but cash has arguably become its proverbial king of investments. If history is a guide, it is a reign that is likely to feature equities underperforming bonds amid a... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What Powell’s bombshell means for our markets forecasts Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress has prompted a material revision to our forecast for the path of the fed funds rate and suggests the near-term risks to that forecast are skewed to the upside... 8th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equity risk premium suggests complacency creeping in Although recent economic data have surprised to the upside, we still think that economic growth in the US will falter later this year. In our view, indicators of the equity risk premium in the US... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Two points on “higher for longer” and asset markets With much of the global economy holding up surprisingly well and inflation not coming down as quickly as expected, investors are weighing up the risk that policy rates remain elevated for much longer... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rationalising the relative rebound in US big-tech We think the recent outperformance of the US “big-tech” “super-sector” could continue, but not because of the “bargain hunting” that we think has caused it to occur despite higher real Treasury yields... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Reassessing the implications of disinflation for US equities While more disinflation may yet benefit the US stock market by, for example, facilitating a renewed decline in TIPS yields and boosting profits from the rest of the world if accompanied by a weaker... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We see more risk than reward in corporate bonds A plunge in credit spreads in recent months suggests to us that there is now limited scope for corporate bonds to outperform government bonds over the next couple of years, even if the global economy... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How a mild recession might affect S&P 500 sector performance We doubt the recent renewed outperformance of the “big-tech” sectors of the US stock market will continue in the coming months given the prospect of a mild recession, even if TIPS yields fall again. 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We still expect Indian equities to lag The Adani saga hasn’t done much to reduce the comparatively stretched valuation of India’s stock market. In our view, that means there is still scope for it to underperform over the long run. In view... 9th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We have our doubts about the soft-landing rally Despite some better news recently, we still think that advanced economies face a tough couple of quarters, an outturn which does not seem to be fully discounted in financial markets. With this in mind... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Assessing the winners and losers since China’s rebound Our view that the stock market in China will continue to recover in the coming months even as its counterpart in the US falters ahead of a mild recession there raises the question of how equities... 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weaker USD may help RoW equities outperform in time While a “risk-off” period in markets may prompt it to pause in the near term, we expect the recent pattern of the US dollar retreating as non-US equities outperform to set the tone for the next couple... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of UK equities may fade Although we think there is still a decent case for UK equities to continue outperforming those in the US over the next few years, we don’t expect the UK’s stock market to perform significantly better... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read