Global Markets Update Three thoughts on the US credit rating downgrade The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision this week is more symbol than substance. But three key related points are worth highlighting. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of El Niño for global markets We think El Niño poses downside risks to the prices of emerging market assets, in general. But even if the effect in aggregate wasn’t all that large, there are several vulnerable sectors where such an... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Are AI equity valuations justified? The sky-high valuations of some touted winners from AI have given rise to claims that their share prices have risen to unsustainably high levels. Is there anything we can learn from the dot com era? 26th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities: near-term gain, long-term pain China’s stock market has underperformed over recent months and investors once again seem to be discounting a lot of bad news. We think this pessimism is slightly overdone and that Chinese equities... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US bank stocks may start catching up, but not just yet Given our view that economic growth will disappoint, we doubt that the positive mood accompanying US banks’ earnings reports will endure over the rest of 2023. But when the outlook brightens, we... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update How markets might fare as US disinflation continues June’s soft US CPI print seems to have given investors renewed hope that inflation could fall back to normal levels without the economy slowing too much, if at all. We continue to think that the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Why don’t TIPS yields matter anymore? Not so long ago, a higher 10-year TIPS yield almost invariably meant an underperformance of US “growth” stocks vis-à-vis their “value” peers, a lower gold price, and a stronger dollar. That’s changed... 13th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equity market winners in the age of AI Given our view that a big stock market rally fuelled by enthusiasm about AI is on the way, we expect equities in some IT and industrials subsectors to outperform, which would favour the US market. 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (July 2023) This new Returns Monitor has been redesigned in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use the menu at the top... 11th July 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Canada & ANZ bonds no longer look like such outliers We still think the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds in Canada, Australia and New Zealand will fall by the end of this year, but no longer expect them to do so by much more than the yields of bonds... 7th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for EM & US bonds Although we expect emerging market (EM) policy rates to fall vis-a-vis the US this year, we don’t expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to outperform US Treasuries until global growth picks up over... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making sense of asset flows and the yen Reconciling the slide in Japan’s currency with big flows into its stock market from abroad and a perception that the appeal of foreign bonds to Japanese investors has waned in response to high hedging... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update European equities: no AI, no party? Since bottoming out late last year, European and US equities have fared comparably in local-currency terms, and European stocks have even outperformed in dollar terms. Looking ahead, however, we think... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up our S&P 500 forecasts We don’t think growing enthusiasm about AI will be enough to stop the S&P 500 from declining if, as we expect, the US economy falls into recession later this year. Nonetheless, we now think the index... 20th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bubbles, recessions, & AI We now suspect growing euphoria over AI will drive the S&P 500 to a significantly higher level than we had previously forecast by the end of next year. In the meantime, though, we still think a mild... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
