Asset Allocation Update Euro-zone equities may continue to underperform the US We think euro-zone equities’ recent run of underperformance relative to those in the US will extend over the next couple of years, as bond yields fall back and enthusiasm around “AI” continues to grow... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Calm and voluptuousness no more for luxury equities? Equities in the Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods industry have fared quite poorly recently, which has weighed on the luxury-heavy French stock market. But while they might underperform a bit more in... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bonds in Australia, NZ & Canada could outperform Treasuries We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What rate hikes in Japan could mean for global markets We now expect the Bank of Japan to hike its policy rate – for the first time in sixteen years – next January. While we think global markets are generally braced for such an event, there’s a clear risk... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for US and UK markets We think that both the Fed and the BoE are finished hiking interest rates and will cut by more than investors are discounting over the next couple of years. We also expect the US and UK economies to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, and the dollar We’ve revised up our projections for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, but still expect both to fall a bit by the end of this year. We have also tweaked our forecast for the US dollar. 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect a rally in government bonds in the US and Europe Market implied rates suggest that investors expect inflation to normalise in the US and Europe in the next couple of years. While we share that view, we think they are overestimating the level of... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US stock market patterns and the economic outlook Recent patterns in the US stock market are sending mixed signals about the extent to which investors are braced for an economic downturn. Our own view is that equities will struggle to make more... 7th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities in EM Asia ex-China may keep holding up well Equities in Emerging Asia outside China have largely outperformed their peers in other Emerging Markets (EMs) since the pandemic started. We think that they will hold up better during the global stock... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of LatAm equities may be set to end Equities in Latin America have generally returned more than those in the rest of the world so far this year for US dollar-based investors willing to shoulder the currency risk. We think that is set to... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the IT sector’s recent stumble The S&P 500 IT sector has struggled this month amid rising bond yields and waning enthusiasm for AI. While we think the sector may fall further this year in absolute terms, we still project it to... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What the bond market swings could mean for equities The big swings in Treasury yields recently have sent some ripples through the US stock market. This Update sets out how we think this will continue to play out, for the equity market as a whole and... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Summer vibes across most markets, but will they last? Since our last Financial Market Stress Monitor on 13th May, strains have continued to ease. This abbreviated Stress Monitor takes stock of developments since then. Overall, stress across core... 10th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The mixed recession signals from US HY bonds & CMBS The stark and unusual contrast between falling credit spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds and rising ones of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the US suggests... 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
