Asset Allocation Update The sun may yet rise on Japan’s stock market Although Japan’s stock market has persistently underperformed its US counterpart since the financial crisis, there are several reasons why it may not continue to lag during the rest of this year and... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Poor returns likely from US corporate bonds & stocks We think that the returns from US corporate bonds and equities will be nowhere near as good in 2020 as they were in 2019, given the outlook for Treasury yields, credit spreads, and corporate earnings. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update It could soon be time to downsize We don’t expect the recent marked outperformance of US mega-cap equities to continue during the rest of this year and suspect that it will unwind if a Democrat wins the race to the White House. 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Gulf in S&P 500 and Treasury returns likely to shrink We expect the S&P 500 to outperform Treasuries by much less in 2020 than in 2019, as government bond yields edge up, the equity risk premium stops tumbling, and corporate earnings continue to... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Examining the case for euro-zone equities Our baseline assumption is that the returns in common currency from mid- and large-cap equities will be similar in the euro-zone and the US in 2020, after a decade in which those in the US have... 4th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Relative equity valuations – mind the gap One reason to think that the relentless outperformance of the US stock market since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) will not continue for another decade is its valuation, which has become... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US equities appear better value than corporate bonds One reason to think that US equities will outperform US corporate bonds over the next couple of years is a larger-than-average wedge between their valuations. 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Talk of bubbles remains a lot of hot air We don’t think that asset valuations in general have risen to unsustainably-high levels, even though many are now far above their long-run averages. So we see no need for major corrections in asset... 28th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update In search of a return from DM government bonds We think that local-currency and USD-hedged returns from developed market government bonds will generally be poor through the end of 2020, but that USD-unhedged returns will be positive next year. 15th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update REITs’ outperformance of equities likely to end soon Although US equity REITs still have comparatively high yields and low valuations, as well as solid fundamentals, we think that their outperformance of US equities will end given the outlook for... 9th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities versus bonds in different inflation scenarios Although we forecast a correction in the US stock market later this year, we think it will outperform Treasuries by a large margin in 2020-21. This view rests on an assumption that inflation will... 30th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Joint surge in US equities and Treasuries set to end This is the first Asset Allocation Update on our new Asset Allocation Service. The service considers the asset allocation implications of our comprehensive macroeconomic and financial market research... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
