Asset Allocation Update Rebound in Chinese equities may be sweet, but short Improving sentiment towards Chinese equities has sparked a further rebound over the past month, with stocks there having generally outperformed those elsewhere over this period. While we continue to... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM sovereign bonds may outperform US Treasuries We expect total returns from both US dollar-denominated, and especially local-currency (LC), emerging market (EM) sovereign bonds to trump, in general, those from US Treasuries in the next couple of... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Europe’s mega-cap breakfast may remain less than magnificent The shares of the very biggest, ‘mega-cap’, firms have generally outperformed those of smaller ones by less in Europe than they have in the US on net so far this decade. We expect that to remain the... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Another look at risk premia; four key areas of uncertainty Despite the correction in equity markets over the past month, risk premia generally remain low across financial markets. While we expect this to continue as an AI-driven bubble inflates in equity... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for cyclicals and defensives We envisage cyclical sectors generally continuing to outperform defensive ones in the S&P 500 through the end of 2025. That reflects our view about the economic outlook; our expectation that hype... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect the stock market AI bubble to reinflate We think the recent recovery in the share prices of some of the ‘Magnificent 7’ is a sign that the earlier pull-back in their collective performance wasn’t a harbinger of a far bigger correction in... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is the future brighter for US banks? Higher Treasury yields, a resilient US economy, and relatively low valuations are three reasons why we now think that the future for US banks in general is a bit brighter. 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil prices and the stock market Many of the usual relationships between oil prices and equities haven’t held over recent months. This Update explores the reason for that, and what may lie in store for energy equities and the broader... 16th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Higher yields might not stop value underperforming growth We think ‘value’ stocks will generally underperform their ‘growth’ counterparts while a bubble in the US stock market continues to inflate, even if Treasury yields don’t drop back in the way that we... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The causes, consequences, and future of the Treasury sell-off We don’t expect the tough times to last for Treasuries. But although their woes so far have coincided with big gains in the stock market (at least until very recently) we don’t think a recovery in... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Will a rising tide continue to lift all the S&P 500’s boats? We wouldn’t be surprised if the “non-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 continued to make gains over the rest of 2024, but we don’t expect them to keep pace with the tech giants as well as they have lately... 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Some global market implications of BoJ tightening Japan’s exit from negative interest rates could place some upward pressure on bond term premia elsewhere, but we don’t think it will prove too disruptive to markets even if the BoJ ultimately hikes a... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (March 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets have kept rising so far this year, even as “safe” asset yields have rebounded. While risky asset valuations are quite high by past standards, we doubt this will... 21st March 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Springtime across markets; too good to be true? The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read