Asset Allocation Update The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US. 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mixed outlook for Brazilian financial assets Brazilian assets have generally underperformed other EMs so far this year, but measures of risk premia still appear low to us, especially given concerns over public finances. While bonds may offer... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall While expectations for interest rates in the UK have already fallen by 40bp by end-2025 since mid-July, our projections for UK CPI inflation to remain below the 2% target for much of 2025 and 2026... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the market summer squall Conditions have stabilised after a turbulent few weeks in financial markets, and we expect the rebound in equity markets over the past week or so to continue. Our assessment is that the market fallout... 15th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update East Asian equities could outperform again before long Equity markets in East Asia suffered very sharp declines earlier this week, but have generally recovered since. We think the rebound has scope to go a lot further as recession fears in the US prove... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We are optimistic about EM sovereign bonds’ returns Our view on emerging market local-currency government bonds is broadly upbeat for the next year or so. We think returns will be largest, in common-currency terms, in Emerging Asia. 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Trump & ESG markets We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric... 25th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French politics need not sink euro-zone stocks Recent political uncertainty in France has taken a big toll on equities there, but stock markets elsewhere in the euro-zone have generally avoided major selloffs. That’s broadly consistent with past... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK Equities may underperform regardless of the election We doubt the outcome of the UK’s general election will have a big impact on UK equities in general. Nonetheless, we still expect them to continue to underperform US equities. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Commodity-exposed stock markets may disappoint Although we expect equities in general to fare well over the next year or so, we think that falls in most commodity prices will weigh on the energy and materials sectors. That would be bad news for... 10th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A new phase of the AI bubble? Investors appear to have shifted their bets away from stocks expected to benefit from using AI and doubled down on those expected to benefit from enabling the AI revolution. But the bigger picture is... 6th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Spillovers from the rally in Chinese equities We think equities in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region may benefit most from improving sentiment towards China in the near term. But we think that economic / market exposures to the AI revolution, not to... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read