Equities Update The S&P 500 in 2025: a five-figure fantasy? While our bullish year-end forecast of 7,000 for the S&P 500 assumes the index’s absolute valuation will approach its dotcom-era peak, that forecast is comparatively conservative based on relative... 20th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Rising Treasury term premia and the stock-bond correlation Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update UK equities may underperform despite tariff insulation The UK stock market appears to be riding high – the FTSE 100 has hit a record high. But local-currency returns from UK equities have been flattered by a weaker pound. In common-currency terms, UK... 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update The rally in bank stocks has room to run US bank stocks in the S&P 500 have generally outperformed their peers over the past year and the key factors driving this look set to persist in 2025. So, we think they will remain around the front of... 28th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to expect from EM financial markets in 2025 We are pessimistic about the outlook for most emerging market assets in 2025, due to the effects of Donald Trump’s agenda, slowing Chinese activity, subdued commodity prices, and domestic challenges. 22nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Non-US equities during Trump’s first year back in office We think Trump’s trade policies will weigh on equity returns outside of the US, making 2025 a year of muted returns for emerging market equities. But we think it will still be a decent year for stocks... 22nd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The AI rally has broadened Investors’ enthusiasm for AI appears to have supported an increasingly broad set of equities of late, even if much of the associated rise in market capitalisation remains concentrated in a few of the... 10th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for Japan’s financial markets We now think the 10-year JGB yield will rise further, the yen will make more ground against the US dollar, and Japan’s equities will struggle to make much headway (in yen terms). 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Our new, lower, forecasts for non-US equities Given our expectation that the Trump administration will push forward with plans to raise tariffs across the board, we have generally revised down our forecasts for stock markets outside the US. And... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher... 7th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yen could weigh further on the TOPIX We argued last year that the relative strength of Japan’s stock market mostly reflected the weak yen rather than a fundamental transformation of its corporate sector. Developments since then suggest... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Bonds & Equities Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets continued to rise in the third quarter, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the start of the Fed’s easing cycle and... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
