Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Focus Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024 This Global Markets Focus explains why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024, in contrast to those who anticipate a much tougher year for the index after a banner 2023. In view of the wider interest... 17th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Focus Three key lessons on geopolitical risk and markets The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is... 26th October 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 4: Financial market implications Higher real and nominal Treasury yields in 2030, relative to the past decade, are one reason why we expect investors to be demanding a greater real return from risky assets in 2030 than they are now. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 3: Where will inflation (and nominal rates) settle? Why we expect a more volatile inflation outlook in the coming years, and how central banks are likely to respond in setting nominal rates in this new normal. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? Why savings and investment incentives will become better aligned in the next decade than over the past 20 years, causing r* to rise. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? Examining how the drivers that have been pulling down equilibrium rates are fading, and the strengthening forces that will push rates higher in the coming decade. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introduction and framework The analytical framework for our r* research, where equilibrium interest rates are determined by the potential rate of GDP growth and other factors which influence the desire to save or invest. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus How we think the outlook for EM equities stacks up We think emerging market equities in Asia will outperform those in EMEA and Latin America over the next couple of years, although we doubt they’ll do better than developed market equities. In view of... 15th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan is not on the cusp of a lasting turnaround Japan bulls have proposed a range of explanations to justify the outperformance of the TOPIX relative to other equity indices over recent months. While there are some signs that firms are enjoying... 24th July 2023 · 18 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus A deep dive into the US stock market’s relative performance In this Focus, we make the case that mid-and large-cap equities in the US will not, in general, continue to outperform those in other developed markets, despite the fact that such outperformance has... 26th August 2022 · 25 mins read
