Asia Economics Weekly Singapore to keep policy tight Singapore Q3 GDP, released on Thursday, is likely to show a sharp fall in q/q annualised terms but this will mainly just be pay-back from the spectacular gains seen in the first half of this year... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia to bide its time on policy rate hikes Bank Indonesia (BI) is almost certain to keep its reference rate at 6.5% on Tuesday. GDP growth remains strong but the economy is expanding close to its trend rate of 6% pa rather than at a faster... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia's cash rate set to rise in October Commentary from the Reserve Bank (RBA) over recent days makes it clear that Australia’s cash rate will move up again soon. Accordingly, we have brought forward our forecast and now expect a 25bp hike... 27th September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indian rupee on a roll which will likely continue India’s currency has climbed sharply against the US dollar since the beginning of September, and the appreciation will probably continue. Capital inflows are likely to stay strong as investors... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New Zealand’s Reserve Bank to pause early The 4th September earthquake in Christchurch means that it is virtually certain that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will keep its cash rate unchanged at 3.0%. Recent economic data have been... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea set to hike again The Bank of Korea (BoK) meets this week and we expect it to raise its base rate by 25bp to 2.50%. Monetary policy remains stimulatory and the BoK has grown increasingly concerned about rising price... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India’s policy tightening still has far to go India’s economic upswing will probably stay strong over the medium term but we suspect that Q2 GDP, published on Tuesday, will be little changed in y/y terms compared to January-March. Household... 30th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand set to tighten further Thailand’s Q2 GDP data are released on Monday and the figures should confirm that the hit to the economy from the April-May troubles in Bangkok was not severe. We have always expected that this would... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia staying with above-trend growth Malaysia’s Q2 GDP figures are released on Wednesday and are likely to show that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace in y/y terms, albeit not as fast as in Q1. Exports and industrial growth... 16th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will the Bank of Korea do? The Bank of Korea (BoK) meets on Thursday and the question is whether its policy rate will be hiked for the second month in a row. Developments since the previous meeting have been broadly positive... 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia’s cash rate still likely to rise later this year The Reserve Bank (RBA) meets on Tuesday and is almost certain to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.5%, given that Q2 consumer price data were softer than expected. Nonetheless, the mining boom will... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How severe is Korea’s slowdown likely to be? GDP growth in Korea probably slowed in Q2 and is likely to stay on a weaker track in coming quarters. The economic upswing should not come under serious threat, but exports and manufacturing growth... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What lies ahead for industrial production in Asia? Industrial output has soared across Emerging Asia since the first half of 2009, but the rapid expansion will not be sustained. The inventory-rebuilding cycle has now largely worked its way through and... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand set to hike policy rates The Bank of Thailand (BoT) meets this week and we, like the market, expect that they will move the policy rate up by 25bp to 1.5%. The social unrest in April-May appears to have inflicted little long... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly The first Bank of Korea rate hike is close The Bank of Korea (BoK) meets this week and the decision whether to hike or not looks to be finely-balanced. We expect the policy rate to be unchanged at 2.0%, although the chance of a July move is... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam’s upswing is accelerating again Vietnam data published over the next few days will almost certainly confirm that the economy has picked up speed and is now expanding close to the government’s target pace of 6.5% y/y. It is likely... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
