Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea set to tighten again We expect Korea’s central bank to hike the base rate by 25bp for the second meeting in a row on Friday, which would take the policy rate to 3.0%. This is also the consensus view. Core inflation, which... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia likely to hike this week It is a close call but we still expect Indonesia’s central bank (BI) to finally lift its policy rate this week, by 25bp to 6.75%. The economic upswing should stay in good shape, while macro prudential... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Negara to stay on hold, but it is a close call Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) meets on Thursday and will probably keep the overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75%. The economic recovery has inevitably lost some momentum as exports have been hit by... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India set to lift rates again later this month India data released last week showed industrial production growth slowed sharply in late 2010 while the annual gain in wholesale prices picked up. The Reserve Bank (RBI) will respond to the latter by... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea set to hike policy rates again We expect Korea’s central bank to lift its policy rate by 25bp to 2.75% on Thursday. This is in contrast to the consensus view which forecasts no change. The worst of the slowdown looks to have come... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam likely to target stability over growth Data published in Vietnam over the next few days should confirm that the economy expanded at a rapid pace in Q4 but inflation remains far too high. What’s more, recent debt downgrades have highlighted... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New Zealand's upswing to regain traction soon New Zealand Q3 GDP data, published overnight on Thursday, are expected to be weak. We forecast that GDP actually fell in q/q terms while the consensus anticipates only 0.1% q/q growth, after an... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's Reserve Bank to pause, not stop The Reserve Bank (RBI) will probably keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.25% on Thursday, while the cash reserve ratio will almost certainly be held steady at 6.0% given ongoing tight liquidity... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia's policy tightening to pause, but not stop The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday and is likely to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. This is because recent data have been soft while mortgage rates have generally increased by... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's upswing to stay in good shape This week’s Q3 GDP data in India will probably show that growth slowed in y/y terms to 8.6%. Nevertheless, our estimate of the GDP trend in q/q seasonally-adjusted terms suggests that growth... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand's upswing to pause but unlikely to stall Q3 GDP data are released in Thailand on Monday and will probably show that the economy contracted in q/q terms. However, this should be viewed as just part of the inevitable adjustment to an expansion... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea's monetary tightening set to resume The Bank of Korea meets on Tuesday and, we judge, will probably lift its 7-day repo rate by 25bp to 2.5%. GDP growth has inevitably slowed given the tougher global environment but domestic demand is... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia to resume policy tightening next year Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) meets to set policy interest rates on Friday and will likely leave the overnight rate unchanged at 2.75%. The economic upswing is losing some momentum and inflation will... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's tightening cycle looks nearly over The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will probably lift its two policy rates by another 25bp this week. Inflation remains too high while the economic upswing, although losing some momentum, is likely to... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea's growth to slow, but not for too long Q3 GDP data will be released in Korea this week and are expected to show that the economy has lost some momentum. What’s more, the upswing will probably stay on a slower track in coming quarters... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand will still probably tighten The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announces its policy rate decision on Wednesday. The repo rate has been hiked at the past two meetings, and we expect another 25bp increase to 2.0%. The surge in the baht... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
