Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy still not out of the woods Recent data from Taiwan have been mixed, with exports showing signs of life but consumer demand softening. We think the economy will weaken in the near-term as any further support from export demand... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hold, but cuts likely by year-end The Bank of Korea (BoK) has left interest rates on hold since January and looks almost certain to leave monetary policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. But with inflation falling back... 18th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea labour market weakness, Singapore Q2 GDP The slowing labour market in Korea adds to the evidence that the economy is struggling, and supports our view that the central bank will cut interest rates before the end of the year. Meanwhile... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP in no rush to cut, Indonesia’s dodgy GDP data Headline inflation in the Philippines fell sharply last month, but with the core rate still elevated and worries about the inflationary impact of El Niño rising, the central bank (BSP) is in no rush... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore labour market cools, Taiwan rate cut delayed Labour market and inflation figures for Singapore published this week support our view that the central bank (MAS) will loosen policy at its October meeting. Meanwhile, we have changed our Taiwan... 28th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Economic weakness to continue into H2 A few places have already published second quarter GDP figures, and the rest of the region will follow over the coming weeks. Although the data are likely to show GDP growth picked up in around half... 21st July 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai election farce, BoK’s hawkish hold, El Niño risks The winner of Thailand’s election, Pita Limjaroenrat of the Move Forward Party, on Thursday failed to secure enough votes in parliament to become the country’s next prime minister. This raises the... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly El Niño key upside risk to inflation in Asia Inflation across Asia continued to slow in June and is likely to fall further over the coming months. The key risk to the outlook is the weather – El Niño conditions have arrived in the Pacific and... 7th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan agrees IMF deal, but will they stick to it? The agreement of a loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF today should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. However, past experience suggests that the... 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BNM to stay on the sidelines, BSP hints at rate cuts Inflation in Malaysia fell again last month, which supports our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is now over. But with growth likely to hold up better than elsewhere in the region, and... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Good news for the BoK, worst now over for Sri Lanka The minutes of the Bank of Korea’s May monetary policy meeting, published this week, confirm that the central bank is becoming increasingly concerned about the growth outlook. And with inflationary... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai inflation below target, tourism rebound continues Inflation in Thailand fell back sharply last month and is now below the central bank’s target, further supporting our view that the BoT’s tightening cycle is now over. Tourism across Asia has... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s economic woes rumble on The latest activity data for Korea were downbeat and support our view that the economy is set to weaken in the second quarter. Meanwhile, house prices fell further in May and are now down about 10%... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak start to Q2, hawkish BoK, Vietnam rate cut Recent national accounts data confirmed that most economies struggled in the first quarter of the year. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Q2 is shaping up to be another weak quarter... 26th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam friend-shoring boost, Thai election muddle Decoupling between China and the US is presenting opportunities for countries that are able to adapt their economies to shifting global supply chains. So far, the main beneficiary of these shifts has... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP meeting on a knife edge, Thailand election The BSP’s meeting on Thursday is likely to be a close call, but with inflation in the Philippines firmly on the way down and the economy slowing, we think the central bank will finally hit the pause... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
