Asia Economics Weekly Falling fertility rates in Korea; BSP on hold The fertility rate in Korea fell to a record low of just 0.7 births per woman in the third quarter of this year – the lowest in the world. The country’s dreadful demographic outlook is the key reason... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak data from Korea; Indonesia and Pakistan elections This week’s data dump from Korea suggests the economy weakened at the start of Q4, supporting our view that the tightening cycle is over and that interest rate cuts could come onto the agenda soon. 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q3 strength unlikely to last, CBSL cuts again GDP growth rebounded strongly across most of Emerging Asia last quarter, but we doubt this strength will last. We expect growth to slow in the near term as weak exports and tight monetary and fiscal... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BI on hold, Taiwan opposition parties unite The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow through with another rate hike at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the chances of an opposition victory in... 17th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Close call for the BSP, but rates likely to be left unchanged The BSP’s scheduled meeting on Thursday will be a close call. On balance, we think the unexpectedly large drop in headline inflation last month and the recent recovery in the peso will be enough to... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea inflation concerns, rates to stay high in Pakistan Headline inflation in Korea rose again last month, but with the core rate dropping back and central bank officials becoming increasingly concerned about the outlook for growth, we expect the BoK to... 3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April The economic landscape in Taiwan is shifting. Domestic demand is now cooling but exports have rebounded. Looking ahead though, renewed weakness in exports appears likely and we expect below trend... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How will policymakers react to weaker currencies? A strong US dollar is a threat to countries with lots of foreign currency debt and/or inflation problems. If Asian currencies remain under downward pressure we expect policymakers to step up their... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Tighter fiscal policy in Malaysia , BoK on hold again Malaysia’s budget for 2024, which was unveiled in parliament today, envisages a modest tightening of fiscal policy. Tighter policy will weigh on an economy which is already being hit hard by the slump... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Friday, but with the economy struggling and inflationary pressures falling back, we are expecting... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s bullet train, forecast revisions, AI Spotlight Indonesia’s first high-speed train line is due to become operational this Sunday, when a WHOOSH bullet train departs the Indonesian capital of Jakarta for the provincial capital of Bandung, 88 miles... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai budget, key messages from central bank meetings Thailand’s new government this week unveiled a budget for fiscal year 2024 which envisages a significant loosening of policy. Higher government spending will provide an important prop to the... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP on a knife edge, Pakistan inflation worries The scheduled highlights of the coming week are monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. While Indonesia and Taiwan are very likely to leave policy settings unchanged, the... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bad news on inflation Headline inflation across Emerging Asia jumped last month due to a rise in food and fuel price inflation. We have raised our inflation forecasts for a number of countries to reflect the deterioration... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak data from Korea puts pressure on BoK This week’s data dump from Korea suggests the economy weakened at the start of Q3, increasing the chances that the BoK will cut interest rates soon. 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy still not out of the woods Recent data from Taiwan have been mixed, with exports showing signs of life but consumer demand softening. We think the economy will weaken in the near-term as any further support from export demand... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
