Asia Economics Weekly Can Moon defuse Korea’s demographic “time bomb”? One of the biggest challenges facing South Korea’s newly elected president, Moon Jae-in, is the country’s dreadful demographic outlook. Although there are steps the new government could take to boost... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP “minus US” – is it worth the bother? Even without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could still provide a decent boost to the four countries from Emerging Asia included in the deal. The risk is that without the carrot of access... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan – improved performance unlikely to last A combination of loose monetary policy and increased infrastructure spending related to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) should push up growth in Pakistan to its fastest pace in over a... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines – current account deficit no cause for alarm A sharp fall in the Philippines’ current account surplus is fueling fears that the economy is overheating. We think such fears are overdone. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five key calls for Emerging Asia The highlight of the coming week is a scheduled monetary policy meeting in Indonesia. Despite the poor growth outlook, we think interest rates will be left on hold against a backdrop of rising... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian consumers facing growing headwinds Consumer spending has grown at a steady if unspectacular pace across Emerging Asia over the past few years, comfortably outperforming other EM regions. Spending in the region should continue to grow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report this month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. No country in Emerging Asia meets the criteria... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte undermining reform prospects in the Philippines Struggles to push through much-needed tax reform in the Philippines are the first sign that President Duterte’s controversial war on drugs and offensive behaviour is undermining the efforts of his... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Korea-US free-trade agreement survive Trump? The risk that the US may seek to renegotiate or even pull out from the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is a big concern for Korean exporters. However, there are reasons to think the US may... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Where next for Asian currencies? Improving export prospects, healthy external positions and easing concerns about a large devaluation of the renminbi mean Asian currencies should hold up relatively well over the coming year even if... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Spike in inflation nothing to worry about The sharp rise in headline inflation across Emerging Asia is unlikely to be the trigger for the region’s central banks to start tightening monetary policy. The increase is almost entirely due to an... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the export recovery last? A jump in export demand provided a boost to economic growth in the region’s most trade dependent economies last quarter, with Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore all expanding at their fastest pace in... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Korea’s exports offset domestic demand weakness? The sharp turnaround in Korea’s headline export growth in recent months owes more to a rebound in commodity price inflation than a recovery in underlying demand. Looking ahead, a combination of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Hong Kong and Singapore: a tale of two housing markets The gradual deflation of what had looked like a housing bubble in Singapore has left the economy in much better shape to cope with rising interest rates. The contrast with Hong Kong, where property... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trump’s “America first” policy poses threat to Philippines China and Mexico were the main focus of Donald Trump’s protectionist threats on the campaign trail. But the Philippines also stands out as vulnerable to any moves by the US towards isolationism. In... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s current account surplus is a sign of weakness Large current account surpluses are sometimes a sign of economic strength. In the case of Thailand, however, where the surplus is over 10% of GDP, it is a symptom of a deeply depressed economy. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
