Asia Economics Weekly New FX forecasts, BoT independence under threat We have finalised changes to our financial market forecasts following Donald Trump’s election victory. We think Asian currencies will weaken by 3-10% against the US dollar between now and the end of... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly North Korea tensions rising, US election implications North Korea’s relations with South Korea and its allies have taken a marked turn for the worse over the past month, with experts warning that “the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous... 1st November 2024 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea dodges recession (just), Sri Lanka in deflation The Bank of Korea pushed back strongly against the prospect of further cuts in the near term when it lowered interest rates earlier this month. But the weakness of the Q3 GDP figures underlines that... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s property doldrums, Indonesia’s new president Concerns that interest rate cuts could lead to a renewed property price bubble in Korea look overblown. With housing transactions close to multi-year lows and the stock of unsold homes high by... 18th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to begin easing cycle, oil price risks With inflation below target and activity data pointing to a further slowdown, we expect the Bank of Korea to kickstart its easing cycle at its scheduled monetary policy meeting next Friday. Meanwhile... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan latest IMF deal, CBSL on hold The loan deal that was confirmed this week between the IMF and Pakistan envisages a further sharp tightening of fiscal policy. This drag from fiscal policy is the main reason why we think GDP growth... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for... 13th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s reassuring budget, good news on inflation Indonesia’s budget for 2025 envisages a slight decline in the fiscal deficit to 2.5% of GDP, down from 2.7% this year. The announcement will provide some reassurance that president-elect Prabowo is... 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling fertility in Korea, government in retreat New figures released this week show that the fertility rate in Korea fell again last year to a new all-time low of just 0.72 births per woman. The decline in the fertility rate will weigh heavily on... 30th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s truce breaks down, Asia’s central banks start to shift stance Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the third member of her family to serve as Thailand’s prime minister. Both her father and her aunt then went into exile. Events over the past two weeks will give investors no... 16th August 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly US growth worries, BSP’s close call, Bangladesh turmoil Our US team believe that while a soft landing for the US economy is still the most likely outcome, the risk of a hard landing has risen. Vietnam stands out as the most vulnerable country in Asia to a... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea growth worries, new Taiwan GDP forecast The latest batch of data from Korea underline how much the economy has struggled in recent months. Despite the weak economy, the jump in inflation last month has dashed any hopes of a rate cut at the... 2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
