Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank raises rates as core inflation rises The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the repo rate by 25bp to 6.75% today, as expected. In response to the RBI’s concerns about core inflation, we have revised our rate hike expectations upwards to 7... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara shifts back into tightening mode Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.75% today, in line with the consensus view but contrary to our expectations of a hike. Nonetheless, BNM resumed policy tightening by... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's cash rate to rise sooner than markets expect The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) yesterday cut its cash rate by 50bp to 2.5% in response to last month’s devastating earthquake in Christchurch. The RBNZ made it clear that it intends to stay in... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s central bank has more work to do The Bank of Korea (BoK) lifted its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, as was universally anticipated. Policymakers are rightly focused on tackling local price pressures, which are not solely due to... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More Bank of Thailand tightening to come The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% today, as expected. As with elsewhere across the region, keeping a lid on inflation is the key concern for policymakers. We expect... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam aims for a comprehensive policy shift The decision of Vietnam’s central bank to raise both the refinancing and discount rates to 12% today (from 11% and 7% respectively) was in line with the recent top-level directive to get a grip on... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka rates likely to move up later this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its policy rates unchanged at today’s meeting, as expected. The economy looks set for another year of above-trend growth, while inflation has already begun to... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia's pause will be short-lived Bank Indonesia (BI) paused the tightening initiated last month, leaving the reference rate unchanged at 6.75%. But today’s pause will probably be brief, given that underlying growth has remained... 4th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's mining boom to bring above-trend growth Australia’s economy grew at a faster pace at the end of last year than in Q3, as expected. Recent natural disasters will lower GDP in this quarter but the outlook is positive. Growth should accelerate... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia's industrial sector gathering momentum Manufacturing PMIs for February, released overnight and today, improved in India, Singapore and Australia and stayed above the key 50 level which signals expansion in Taiwan. Factory output looks set... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's budget targets look hard to achieve The Indian budget, passed today, aims to bring the deficit down to 4.6% of GDP in 2011/12. We judge that this will be difficult to achieve, primarily because the planned expenditure reduction looks... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most vulnerable to high oil prices? India and Thailand would struggle most within Asia if oil prices were to remain at their current level. China is less reliant on oil than most in the region. In general, Asia’s strong growth would... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand set for strong growth Today’s Q4 GDP data for Thailand show that the economy returned to q/q growth at the end of last year, as expected. Growth is likely to pick up during the course of this year, led by strengthening... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam's base rate hike a step in the right direction Vietnam’s central bank hiked its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp to 11% today, which follows on from last week’s devaluation of the dong against US dollar. It appears that policymakers are... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore to focus on tackling inflation Q4 GDP figures were revised lower today, as expected, but the economy nonetheless grew by a spectacular 14.5% in 2010 as a whole. GDP growth is likely to be robust this year and will increase the... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation still warrants further tightening Yesterday’s wholesale prices data show headline inflation is falling. But inflation remains too high for comfort so we continue to expect the Reserve Bank (RBI) to raise rates by a further 50bp by mid... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
