Latin America Economics Update Are emerging markets immune? Despite benefiting from generally better fundamentals, no emerging market (EM) is immune from the deepening problems in the US and Europe. Growth everywhere is likely to slow over the next year and... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s robust growth highlights overheating risks Today’s Q2 GDP data for Indonesia confirm that growth remained brisk, underpinned by rising commodity exports and resilient domestic demand. We maintain our view that further monetary tightening at... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Have Australia’s shoppers gone on strike? Sluggish retail sales have prompted media reports that Australia’s shoppers have gone on strike. However, overall consumer spending has held up much better. The upshot is that we do not expect the... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines targeting investment grade The Philippines has seen its fiscal deficit fall sharply during the first six months of the year. Although revenue growth has been growing strongly, the fact that government spending has fallen... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia PMIs fall sharply Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) released over the past two days for India, Taiwan, Australia and Singapore all worsened considerably. Manufacturing across Asia is likely to remain subdued for the... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy in Pakistan becomes increasingly haphazard In an unexpected move, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) at the weekend cut its main policy rate by 50bp to 13.5%. The cut came despite continued strong inflationary pressures, and follows growing... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s “insurance cut” to be reversed in September The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has signalled that its policy rate will soon be raised from a post-earthquake emergency level, provided its worst fears for the global economy do not materialise... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update One more rate rise this year in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its overnight rate on hold at 4.5% today, however, it did still tighten monetary policy by raising the reserve requirement ratio. Although inflation is above... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s growth slows, but policymakers will focus on inflation Today’s Q2 GDP data from Korea confirm that the economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter than it did in the first. Nonetheless, we believe that Korea’s policymakers will continue to focus... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India hikes and remains hawkish The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised markets with a 50bp rate hike today, lifting the repo rate to 8.0%. With the accompanying policy statement reinforcing the RBI’s hawkish policy stance, we now... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update High inflation in Singapore will not bring more MAS tightening The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) revised up its 2011 inflation forecast last week while data out today show that inflation rose in June. Nonetheless, talk of runaway price pressures looks... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How quickly will remittances to the Philippines grow this year? Growth in remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) to the Philippines has slowed since the 2008-09 global crisis. However, we believe that remittances growth is likely to stabilise rather than... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy tightening required in India Today’s price data from India show that both headline and core inflation rose further in June. What’s more, we expect the headline rate to reach double-digit levels in the third quarter. While growth... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore’s economic weakness will be short-lived Singapore’s advance estimate of GDP in the second quarter shows that the economy contracted due to weakness in the manufacturing sector. However, the expansion should resume in the second half of this... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s policy rate has further to rise The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its base rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Nonetheless, the policy rate is still below pre-crisis levels, while core inflation has further to climb. The upshot is that the... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s central bank to focus on fiscal developments The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its repo rate by 25bp to 3.25% today, as expected. Fiscal policy is likely to be looser under the incoming government than the outgoing administration. The upshot is... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
