Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India cautious on rate cuts The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its cash reserve requirement today but left the repo rate on hold. The hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that, although rate cuts are surely coming... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy loosening to come in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) cut its overnight rate by 25bp to 4.25% today, as expected. Exports have slumped and are unlikely to pick up much this year, while inflation is set to fall towards... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s headline inflation falls but rate cut unlikely before March Data released today show a big drop in headline inflation, to 7.5% y/y in December. But the key measure of core inflation fell only slightly. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to wait... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation risks are a concern in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI), kept its reference rate on hold today, as expected, after cutting rates by a cumulative 75bp in the final quarter of 2011. Despite the likelihood that inflation will accelerate... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia PMIs paint mixed picture December PMIs for Asia paint a mixed picture. The surveys suggest manufacturing output returned to growth in Australia, while in contrast to the weakness of recent data, factory output rebounded... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong growth to continue in Sri Lanka Sri Lanka’s GDP grew strongly in the third quarter of 2011, following a rapid expansion in all of the main sectors of the economy. Rapid growth reduces the immediate urgency for interest rate cuts... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Kim Jong-il's death adds to Korean uncertainty Given the lack of transparency in North Korea, it would be unwise to leap to any conclusions following news of Kim Jong-il’s death. Our best guess is that the uncomfortable status quo will continue... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India prepares ground for rate cuts as economy slows Although it left its repo rate unchanged at today’s meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalled that it is preparing the ground to loosen policy earlier than previously expected. We now think... 16th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to a euro-zone banking crisis? The impact on emerging Asia of a fall in lending by euro-zone banks to the region would be small. However, Asia would be vulnerable if the crisis in the euro-zone caused global credit markets to... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update NPLs are likely to rise sharply in Vietnam The government in Vietnam has moved to restructure some of the country’s banks. This comes after a surge in lending in recent years, which has contributed to a rise in bad debt. The non-performing... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea and New Zealand central banks too sanguine The government in Vietnam has moved to restructure some of the country’s banks. This comes after a surge in lending in recent years, which has contributed to a rise in bad debt. The non-performing... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Indonesia to come down further next year After cutting interest rates by a cumulative 75bp at its last two meetings, Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key reference rate on hold today, as expected. However, with inflation continuing to fall and... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank to cut again in February The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its cash rate by 25bp to 4.25% today. We see global growth slowing to a below-trend pace in 2012, which in turn should bring more policy loosening in... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam's central bank risks losing its credibility The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) is coming under pressure from the government to cut interest rates amid signs of slowing economic growth. However, with inflation at just under 20% y/y in November... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for Asian markets? Following changes to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up, we have revised down our forecasts for emerging Asia’s currency and equity markets for next year. However, we see both... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
