Asia Economics Update Thailand’s weak economy to bring more rate cuts Today’s Q4 GDP data show that, due to widespread floods, Thailand’s economy suffered a bigger quarterly contraction in late-2011 than it did in either the 2008-09 global crisis or the Asian Financial... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia facing a tough year ahead Malaysia’s economy grew at a slower pace in Q4 than it did in Q3, in line with the regional trend. We expect Malaysia to suffer a double hit from softer exports and lower commodity prices this year... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippine remittances to remain resilient The provisional Q4 euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted at the end of last year, albeit by a bit less than had been feared. The 0.3% quarterly fall was slightly better than the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation drops further The drop in inflation to 6.6% y/y in January results primarily from base effects and falling food prices. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence that underlying inflationary pressure has eased for... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank too sanguine on outlook for growth The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Our view is that Korea’s policymakers are likely to shift their focus away from tackling inflation towards supporting growth... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A cut too far by Bank Indonesia? Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its reference rate again today by 25bp. The decision was somewhat unexpected. The central bank had already cut rates by a cumulative 75bp in the final quarter of last year and... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How much will weak export demand weigh on Asia? Exports from Asia have weakened significantly in recent months. Not only are they contracting in y/y terms in many countries, but they have slowed much more sharply compared with other emerging... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank to resume cutting this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly kept its cash rate at 4.25% today. Nonetheless, we continue to expect conditions outside of the resources sector to remain weak and, despite the recent... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth to ease only slightly in Indonesia Indonesia’s economy continued to grow strongly in the fourth quarter of last year. Underlining the economy’s resilience, household consumption and investment growth actually accelerated despite a... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs signal industrial slowdown has abated Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) improved for four out of the five economies in Asia (outside Japan and China) for which they were released today. This suggests that the slowdown in industrial... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate likely to be cut this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its overnight rate at 3.0% today, as was widely anticipated. Looking ahead, we think that Malaysia’s exports will struggle and that inflation is likely to fall further... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan back in recession Taiwan’s economy contracted for a second successive quarter at the end of 2011 due not only to weak exports but to lacklustre domestic demand too. The central bank is soon likely to join the regional... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak growth to continue in the Philippines The Philippines recorded another quarter of weak growth in Q4 due to continued weak export demand. Although the resilience of domestic demand is encouraging, sluggish global demand is likely to weigh... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s weak growth to bring rate cuts soon Today’s Q4 GDP data from Korea show that the economy ended 2011 on a very weak note. Growth is likely to be sluggish at best over the next few quarters amid soft global demand, while Korea’s inflation... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s cash rate to stay low in 2013 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today, as was widely anticipated. Most analysts expect policy to be tightened significantly over the next two years. In contrast, we... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand likely to cut further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, as expected. Thailand’s economy has been hit hard by floods and weak global demand is likely to limit the rebound in... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
