Asia Economics Update What should we expect from first quarter GDP in India? India’s first quarter GDP data, due to be published on 31st May, are likely to show a further slowdown in activity compared to the last quarter of 2011. With no sign that growth is likely to pick up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Falling inflation in Vietnam opens door to further rate cuts Inflation in Vietnam fell in May for the ninth consecutive month, with the y/y rate dropping below 10% for the first time since late 2010. Weaker inflation should provide further support to the dong... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad were the Q1 data for emerging Asia? Most of Asia reported weak GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, due mainly to weak export demand. The crisis in the euro-zone is likely to weigh heavily on Asia this year. However, the... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s growth set to slow further Today’s GDP data show that Malaysia’s growth slowed in Q1, mainly due to weaker exports. With renewed concerns from the euro crisis weighing on global sentiment, exporters are likely to face an even... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand posts V-shaped recovery, but policy loosening still likely Today’s Q1 GDP data show that Thailand’s economy bounced back strongly from the flood-induced slump in Q4, as expected. Growth will inevitably slow sharply now that the easy gains have been achieved... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a rebalancing of China’s economy mean for Asia? A rebalancing of China’s economy away from investment and towards consumption would be bad for the region’s capital goods and commodities exporters, with Korea, Indonesia and Australia likely to be... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will the Reserve Bank‘s support for the rupee succeed? We doubt that the Reserve Bank of India’s recent efforts to prop up the rupee will succeed. However, this may be a good thing, as India would benefit from a more competitive currency. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian central bank is playing a waiting game Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3% today, as expected. There have been signs of a slowdown in the economy in early 2012, and low inflation gives BNM room to cut. We still... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea inflation worries to dissipate The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Given that inflation is in retreat and concerns for the global economy are on the rise, we think the BoK’s stance will soon... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia on course for a budget surplus in 2012-13 Australia’s government retained its target of returning to a small budget surplus in 2012-13 in today’s federal budget. Solid economic growth and public spending restraint should help the government... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong GDP growth in Indonesia, but will it last? Indonesia recorded another quarter of strong economic growth in Q1, with the economy slowing only slightly compared with the previous quarter. Even after allowing for the likelihood of weak global... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to change policy stance The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. The economy looks to have grown strongly in Q1, following floods that brought a slump in GDP late last year... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update April PMIs suggest Asia’s industrial recovery is losing steam April PMIs for Asia were generally disappointing, and in Australia in particular the index was outright alarming. The weak numbers reinforce our belief that the region’s industrial sector is set for a... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What is the likely impact of Malaysia’s minimum wage? The Malaysian government used Labour Day to announce the introduction of the country’s first minimum wage. The policy should help to reduce poverty, but it will also squeeze businesses’ profit margins... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy loosening to come in Australia The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by a larger-than-expected 50bp to 3.75% today. We continue to expect conditions outside of the resources sector to be sluggish, as the currency... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for the Vietnamese dong? After a large devaluation early last year, the Vietnamese dong has been stable against the US dollar for the past 15 months. The fall in the trade deficit and easing inflation mean the currency is... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
