Asia Economics Update Taiwan rate outlook hinges on exports Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate at 1.875% today, as was widely expected. The economy’s dependence on export-led growth means that the global outlook will remain the key consideration... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand will not sustain Q1 momentum Today’s GDP data show that New Zealand’s economy grew at its fastest pace since 2007 in Q1. We have raised our 2012 growth forecast in response. However, the strong Q1 performance does not change our... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth slows in Sri Lanka, further weakness ahead GDP growth in Sri Lanka weakened in the first quarter to its slowest pace in two years. Growth is likely to slow further over the rest of the year due to a combination of tight monetary policy and... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India still likely to cut rates later this year The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly left its repo rate at 8.0% today. Nonetheless, we expect it to cut rates by 50bp by the end of this year as its focus is likely to shift back towards... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation rises but Reserve Bank still likely to cut rates Despite a rise in headline inflation in May, we think the Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut the repo rate by 25bp at its rate-setting meeting on Monday. The underlying inflation rate has not... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Renewed rate cuts likely in the Philippines by year-end The Philippines central bank (BSP) today left its main policy rate on hold at 4%, as expected. Although interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the next few months, with the crisis in the euro... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand likely to loosen policy by year-end The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. While Thailand’s economy bounced back strongly in Q1 from last year’s flood-induced slump, the focus has now... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is fiscal stimulus on the way in Asia? Our view that Asia is well-placed to withstand sluggish global growth and the crisis in the euro-zone is based on our belief that policymakers in the region have plenty of scope to cut interest rates... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to remain on hold in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate on hold for the fourth consecutive month and we expect rates to remain at their current levels for the rest of the year. However, in contrast to the... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another rate cut in Vietnam, more to follow The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) today announced the fourth reduction in interest rates in as many months amid sharp falls in inflation, problems in the banking sector and weak economic growth... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian rupiah has further to fall The Indonesian rupiah has been one of the worst performing currencies in emerging Asia so far this year. We think an intensification of the euro-zone crisis, a worsening of the trade balance, rising... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Who in Asia is most vulnerable to a hard landing in China? Recent weak data from China has led to renewed fears of a hard landing in Asia’s biggest economy. The countries most exposed would be those for which China is an important export market such as Hong... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian GDP surges in Q1, but growth has probably peaked Australia’s economy grew far more quickly than expected in Q1. A global slowdown and a strong currency have taken its toll on exports, but the domestic economy is being bolstered by an investment boom... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s growth rate slows further, worse still to come The sharp slowdown in India’s GDP growth in the first quarter means hopes for growth of 7% or more this calendar year are too optimistic. We are cutting our forecast to 6%. 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth rebounds in the Philippines, but will the recovery last? GDP growth in the Philippines rebounded strongly in the first quarter due to continued strong private consumption, a pick-up in government spending and a recovery in exports. However, with the crisis... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand dollar rally unlikely to last The New Zealand dollar has been one of Asia’s worst-hit currencies since fears of a euro-zone breakup escalated. The currency has regained some ground in recent days and most analysts expect it to... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
